Showing posts with label Matt Wieters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Wieters. Show all posts

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Preliminary 2011 Catcher Rankings


It's never too early to think about next season, especially in keeper leagues. Catcher has been, in recent years, a hit or miss position. You either get one of the elite catchers, or you wait and cross your fingers. In keeper leagues, it's good to always be thinking about the future.

1. Joe Mauer, Twins

Wouldn't my credibility go out the door if I didn't put Mauer 1st? He's a 3 time batting champ, and 2009 MVP. He's a career .326 hitter who hasn't hit below .293 for a season in his Major League career. The power is finally starting to come around (although took a hit in 2010), the RBI's have been steadily increasing. He should be the top ranked catcher on every list out there.

2. Brian McCann, Braves

This is the safe bet. Sure, you could go with any number of guys in this spot, but McCann consistently produces and rarely disappoints. He's having a bit of a down year in 2010, but I expect him to rebound next season.

3. Matt Wieters, Baltimore

Everybody knows he's having a down year in 2010, thats common knowlegde. This should actually drive his price down next season and you could get him cheaper if you beleive he's worht the risk. Wieters was once considered an elite prospect, one along the lines of "Joe Mauer" type skills. He has all the potential in the world, just needs to work on adjusting to big league pitchers as they adjust to his weaknesses.

4. Victor Martinez, Red Sox

This list is looking a lot like last seasons rankings so far. You can't take Martinez's 2010 numbers too seriously, as he was injured for a large portion of the season. He will play Catcher and 1B, and get regular playing time. His career batting average stands at .298, and maybe has the best power potential of any catcher. He will be 32 years old, however, and you have to start thinking about the wear and tear of the catcher position starting to get to him.

5. Buster Posey, Giants

Finally, a new comer to the list that woulnd't have been here a year earlier. Posey has impressed in his short campaign this season as the Giants Catcher and part time firstbasemen. The Giants must think he's a sure thing, becuase they traded away veteran catcher Benji Molina. You can expect a small regression, as he's hitting well over his head so far in 2010, but the bat is legit.

6. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

With Chris Snyder gone, Montero will get all the playing time at catcher. In regular duty, he has shown flashes of an elite catcher, but this is about as high as I would feel comfortable ranking him.

7. Mike Napoli, Angels

Napolis is a tough guy to read. His power is legit, and it's definitely his best asset. The problem is, he's not going to score a ton of runs, and his average might sting a little. He is never a safe bet to get constant playing time either, as Mike Scioscia has shown in the past he will play less talented catchers over Napoli if he struggles.

8. Carlos Santana, Indians

Here's hoping his knee surgery goes well, and his rehab is fast and effective. This kid could be top 5 given the right opportunities, but he's in a bad Cleveland lineup with little protection as he is quite possibly the Indians best hitter. I'm being conservative with this ranking because of the knee, but he has the potential to be great.

9. Geovany Soto, Cubs

Another guy with a down year that I feel will probably bounce back. He was an allstar as a rookie, and deservingly so. He has the skill set, he just needs to impliment it.

10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics

Suzuki is a guy many had pegged as a sleeper going into 2010, but injuries and generally average play has quited those voices. He has the potential, but I just don't like the ballpark or lineup he's in, as he doesn't have enough in the tank to do it all himself.

11. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays

Call me crazy, but this guy looks great. I can't imagine he'll play more than 110 games next season at the big leagues (if that), but the sky is the limit with this kid. He hit 31 homeruns in AAA this season before being called up, leading all of professional baseball in that category. An amazing talent this kid is, but we'll have to see how he responds to major league pitching before we declare him a Top 10 catcher.

12. Russell Martin, Dodgers

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Martin, once considered an elite catcher for his power and speed combo, has definitely lost a step, which is concerning because he's only 27 years old. His value has bottomed out, and he might be a nice sleeper pick if your willing to take the risk of a complete bust.

13. Jorge Posada, Yankees

This guy just doesn't seem to know when to quit. He's getting up their in years (he'll be 39 next season) and at some point his age will catch up with him, and the Yankees will move on to Jesus Montero. I don't expect Posada to lose a ton of playing time next season, but he could lose a significant chunk. Let's not forget that he has been getting injured more regularly in the past couple seasons, and he certainly wont be healthy for the entire 2011 season either.

14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates

This is a tough call, because now with the addition of Chris Snyder and Jeff Clement finally healthy, the catcher situation in Pittsburgh is in flux. I think Doumit is the guy, and Clement will play first, but nothing is a given in Pitt next season.

15. Miguel Olivo, Rockies

It's hard to beleive that for the better part of 2010 he was the top fantasy catcher. No one saw it coming, and no one will predict it again. He is an average catcher in a good situation, and nothing more.

16. Yadier Molina, Cardinals

This is a guy who is constantly overrated in a Fantasy sense. He's a great defensive catcher, and he's in a great lineup, but just take a look at his stats and tell me why is is drafted in the Top 10 catchers? This is about as high as I would rank him, and in most leagues you want nothing to do with him.

17. Tyler Flowers, White Sox

A definite sleeper pick here, as there is no guarantee of playing time, but he is the White Sox catcher of the future with A.J. Pierzynksi getting up there in years. He has the skill set, but he's strugged in AAA in 2010.

18. Ronny Paulino, Marlins

A shot in the dark, so to speak. He has shown short flashes of being a solid fantasy catcher, but nothing hints at long term production. You shouldn't want anything to do with him.

19. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers

With all the catchers they have in Texas, it's hard to see one getting a significant amount of playing time. Benji Molina could very well be in this spot or higher, but he's getting old and running out of talent.

20. Nick Hundley, Padres

For the last catcher on this list, I could have done much worse. He hasn't been terrible, and I've seen him owned in a 12-team league for short periods of time, however avoid if at all possible.

That does it for my early-August Preliminary Catcher Rankings. Expect a more detailed and updated list in the off-season. Any feedback is appreciated.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.