How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.

Instant Replay 8/4/2010

Lots of action last night, but before we recap the action, let's see how my Spot Start predictions went.

Start Vin Mazzaro Oak, Tuesday vs Kansas City

Mazzaro had a solid start in this one, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings while striking out 5. He didn't get the win, as the game was tied at the time of his departure, and Craig Breslow eventually blew the game in the 9th. You can't really complain about this start, despite not recording a win, as a 1.5 ERA, 1.16 WHIP is nothing to be upset about.

Sit Scott Olsen Was, Tuesday at Arizona

Hopefully you didn't need my advice on this one to begin with, but in case you did, I hope you took it. Olsen gave up 5 earned runs in 5.2 IP, while posting a WHIP of 1.41 and only punching out 3. An ugly outing for Olsen, who has been a decent pitcher this season. I hate to say it, but I told you so.

So far, I've correctly predicted 3 of 4 Start/Sit decisions this week. Tune in tomorrow to see how Wednesday's games went. Now onto other news from around the league.

Jacoby Ellsbury returns...part 2

According to Terry Francona, Ellsbury will be activated and should play in the Red Sox game against the Indians tonight. It's been a rough season for Ellsbury owners, who never thought in million years that rib problems would only allow him to play in 9 games through July 3rd. Hopefully you hung onto him, as his upside far outweighs any replacement you could have possibly gotten. He should be safe to activate in daily and weekly leagues.

Ryan Howard latest DL victim

Ryan Howard just got shipped off to the DL, becoming the latest superstar to get hit with the injury bug. This season has been called "The Year of the Pitcher" (will post on this later) and most of the time that is attributed to "post-steroid-era baseball" but can you not consider all the injuries in this statement? Nearly every team in the league (and every fantasy team) has been hit at some point or another.

Howard's injury is a sprained ankle, so it doesn't look too serious. He should be out no more than 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, finding a replacement first basemen might be difficult. Look at the potential replacements I named for Kevin Youkilis for advice.

Adam Dunn placed on waivers

This is breaking news, however everyone who knew anything about the situatin knew it was coming. Because of the way waivers work, it is highly unlikely that any American League team will even get a shot at Dunn. National League teams will get first crack, going in order of worst record to best record. There is speculation as to which teams would claim him, but the best and safest bets are San Fransisco and Colorado. If either of these teams claims him (and they likely will), neither team would be able to match the Nationals demands for Dunn, and he will likely be taken back off waivers and remain with the Nationals for the remainder of the season. If your in an NL-only league, don't hit the panic button, and if your in an AL only league, don't hold your breath.

Manny suffers setback, Furcal strains back

Manny has suffered a "setback" in his rehab from a right calf strain, according to Joe Torre, and he likely won't begin a minor league rehab assignment for another week. In shallow, 10 team leagues, I have no problem with you dropping him at this point.

An MRI exam revealed that LA shortstop Rafael Furcal has a low back strain. He's currently listed as day-to-day, and won't play in tonight's game against San Diego. If he can manage to avoid a DL stint, he will likely be out at least a few more games, but that remains to be seen.

Breaking News

Kevin Youkilis has just been put on the DL. I'm not going to speculate on his injury, but it didn't look serious at all, so this news is a bit surprising. This late in the season it hurts fantasy owners to lose their star players. There aren't a ton of options out there as temporary replacements either, but I'll quickly go over a few.

Jose Lopez, 3B Seattle - He's had a terrible year, and is likely sitting in your free agent pool because of it. Let's not forget the potential this guy has, and hope he can turn it around for two months.

Brett Wallace, 3B Houston - He's a bit of a sleeper, but if your in need of a power boost, you could do much worse. He won't steal a single base, he'll have a low average and probably won't score too many runs, but the potential for home runs and RBI's is there.

Chris Johnson, 3B Houston - The other (and possibly better) third basemen of the future in Houston. He's been a Top 10 third basemen in the last month, and is only owned in 24.5% of standard ESPN leagues.

Danny Valencia, 3B Minnesota - His average is way above his head, and is bound to come down, but he has the potential to get a decent amount of runs and RBI's given his playing time with Nick Punto and Orlando Hudson on the DL.

Now I'm just waiting for the inevitible news on Carlos Santana's injury. I assume he will go on the DL, but just hope that he's not out the rest of the season. Manny Acta said that he may have avoided serious ligament damage to knee and also that he "doesn't have any serious damage on his PCL or ACL." Here's hoping for the best for the promising young Cleveland prospect.

*Update* The Cleveland Indians just placed Carlos Santana on the 15-day DL. Further reports have revealed a "high grade strain of his LCL, and a hyperextended knee." There is still no timetable on his rehab, and surgery is still an option. Cleveland will probably do what's best for their star prospect's future, as this season means nothing to them, and he likely played in his last game of 2010 on Monday.

*Update* Kevin Youkilis' injury has been revealed as a "tear in the muscle that helps contract the thumb," and is apparently a rare injury. There is no timetable for his return just yet, but with the Red Sox in the thick of a penant race and Youkilis being their most consistent hitter, I would be shocked to see him out more than 2-3 weeks.

Instant Replay 8/3/10

I intended this post to analyze a few of my suedo-predictions in my last few posts, but I'll expand it to include news from games last night.

My fantasy team took some big blows last night, as I'm sure most of yours did. Carlos Santana suffered a horrific injury that appeared to be season ending. During a collision at home plate with Ryan Kalish, Santana's knee buckled and hyper extended backwards, as well as his ankle twisting sideways before his shoe popped off under the pressure. It was nasty anyway you look at it, and scary for his owners (let alone the Indians). In the same game Kevin Youkilis "jammed" his thumb on a swing and eventually came out of the game. MRI's are scheduled for today, and he likely will be out for a few days. Hopefully he can avoid a DL stint, as thats the last thing the Red Sox need at this point.

Alright, enough depressing injury news. Let's see how I did with the spot start predictions.

Started Travis Wood Cin, Monday at Pittsburgh

This was just about the perfect spot start. 7 scoreless innings, with 4 K's and a 0.43 WHIP, while recording the dominant win. It doesn't get much better than this when plucking pitchers from your free agent pool, and truth be told, Wood might not be a free agent in your league for much longer.

Sat Jeremey Hellickson

I whiffed on this one, as Hellickson also posted a very good spot start. 7 IP, 2 ER and 6 K's, good for a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP while also recording the win (over a very good Minnesota team). This start was arguably more impressive than Wood's, given the level of competition. I may have overlooked one thing when predicting this in the "Sit" column, that being the fact that this was only a one game stint and Hellickson had a chip on his shoulder with something to prove.

Going forward, I'm still holding strong with my Start Vin Mazzaro and Sit Scott Olson. For the rest of the day I'll hold my breath as Santana and Youkilis go in for MRI's on their respective injuries. Here's hoping for the best.

Injuries piling up

Every team deals with injuries here and there, it's a fact of fantasy baseball. Just when you think you're safe, that's when the injury bug will bite.

It's bad enough to already have lost Troy Tulowitzki (rated #1 shortstop at the time of the injury), but I got some terrible news this weekend when the Cleveland Indians put Shin-Soo Choo on the DL Saturday (thats right Choo...you keep your head down...me and all your other owners are very disappointed in you...very disappointed). I'm not one to speculate on injuries, or even offer my opinion on them, because I'm not a doctor. However, I saw the play that Choo got injured on, and in no way, shape, or form did this look like a serious injury, or even an injury at all. Choo dove for a ball that was just out of his reach, and without landing on his glove hand funny or anything, quickly got up, grabbed the loose ball and threw it in. Not even a wince of pain on his face, nothing like that. After the game, I figured maybe he bruised it or it was sore, so he got Saturday off but was scheduled for an MRI. This is a precautionary step, and even Manny Acta thought there was no significant injury. Then...WITHOUT WARNING...the Indians threw Choo on the DL with a "sprained right thumb."

Injuries happen to everyone in fantasy baseball, it's a fact of life. You are not judged on how bad your luck is when it comes to injuries, rather you are judged on how you recover from them.

There is no set method to dealing with major injuries. If you were to lose Albert Pujols tomorrow for two months, there is no way you would be able to match his production over that time span, and you would inevitibly be losing value at that roster position. Your goal should be to excercise your skill in "damage control" whenever injuries strike, who knows, sometimes you can even get lucky.

For example, when trying to decide which players to pick up to fill the roster spot (assuming you don't have someone stashed already on the bench), I like to look toward the guys with big upsides, that other owners aren't yet willing to bet on. I also like guys that are having down years, however there is no real explaination as to why it's happening (possibly suggesting it's just bad luck).

I drafted Asdrubal Cabrera as my middle infielder, so when he went down with a broken arm earlier in the year, I wasn't too upset. It was an easy replacement, and I snagged Aaron Hill off the waiver wire. The next two injuries to my team weren't so easy to deal with.

When I lost Tulowizki, I instantly looked at the available free agent shortstops I could pick up to fill in for the next two months ot Tulo-less ball. I was shocked at how few my options were. The best options available at the time were Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante (SS eligibility), and Ian Desmond. While in some deeper leagues all of these players would already be owned, these guys are borderline 12-team players. I ended up switching between the three trying to find the hot hand (with some success) but struck gold when a trio of other owners bailed on their highly drafted shortstops. Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar and Alcides Escobar were all dropped by their fed-up owners, and I grabbed Alexei Ramirez because I felt that he was in the best position to give me value. I'm happy to report that he hit a homerun for me yesterday and another one today.

Shin-Soo Choo, in my opinion, is one of the most overlooked and underrated fantasy (and real life) baseball players you can find. He's a legitimate (when healthy) 25-25 guy, with potential for even more production. If he was healthy, he would have easily been the Indians All-Star, as he is a million times more valuable to any team than Fausto Carmona is. When he went down with his injury a couple days ago, I instantly felt a terrible sickening feeling deep in my stomach. This is going to be harder to rebound from than Tulowizki was. I ended up settling with Jonny Gomes as a replacement (dropped by an impatient owner) and he hit a homerun for me yesterday. However, where I'm really hurting is steals.

Since losing Tulowizki, trading BJ Upton, losing Coo, and combine all that with Rajai Davis's severe drop in playing time, it's safe to say I'm hurting in the SB department. I'm currently second in my league in steals (with 101, a 4 steal lead over 3rd, and a 10 steal deficit from 1st), but can see myself dropping in that category.

I'm just thankful I don't have Chase Utley, or Kendry Morales, or Jason Heyward, or Placido Polanco, or Dustin Pedroia, or Victor Martinez, or Manny Ramirez, or Josh Beckett, or Jacoby Ellsbury, or Grady Sizemore, or Brian Roberts. There has been a crazy amount of injuries this year, so nearly everyone has been effected.