Starting Lineup: Position Players 8/9/2010

Every week, we go over one player at each position and give some recent news and predictions about them. Last weeks Starting Lineup can be found here.

Catcher J.P. Arencibia

It's quite possible that my article last week cursed a few players, namely last weeks featured catcher, Carlos Santana. Only a few days after my post raving about Santana, he goes down with a serious knee injury that required season-ending surgery.

This week, we'll spotlight J.P. Arencibia. I posted about his background but it doesn't appear many people got the memo. If you would have taken my advice and picked him up, you would have gotten the 4-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI stat line that he posted in his debut. Now, not even I could have predicted something that good, but we'll pretend I did.

Going forward, you might want to take caution with him. He will get the majority of the starts until John Buck returns from injury (sitting every 3rd game), that much is clear. What's not clear is what will happen to Arencibia when Buck actually does return. It's likely he will go back to Vegas, so he cal play every day rather than wasting his talent on the bench. I feel he could be Toronto's starting catcher as early as opening day 2011, and his value just skyrocketted in keeper leagues.

1B Justin Morneau

He came out of the gates absolutely on fire in 2010, becoming one of the most valuable first basemen in all of fantasy baseball. It was common knowledge he's had previous issues with back problems, but I don't think anyone was worried about a concussion. Thats exactly what happened, and the problem with concussions, is that we never have a definite time table of recovery.

I think that Morneau will be back in 2-3 weeks, but even when he comes back he might get a rest day rather frequently to aid in the long term recovery. Concussion symptoms can linger for months after the initial injury (Aaron Hill missed an entire season because of one).

Because of this, I feel that unless you're in a keeper league, you should try to sell on Morneau now. You will get much less value out of him then you expect given the stats he's produced this season. Obviously, don't be so quick to pull the trigger in a keeper league, but I would take whatever I could get for him in a yearly league.

2B Orlando Hudson

Last weeks featured second basemen, also went down with an injury. Thankfully for the Twins, Orlando Hudson was ready to come off the DL and resume his regular play at 2B. Great news for his owners, as the Twins are in the heat of a penant race and need all the help they can get.

Hudson can be a good source of runs, while also posting a decent average. Only expect home runs and stolen bases sporadically, and don't count on a ton of RBI's. His value mostly lies in batting in front of Joe Mauer. He is a threat to score a run every single time he gets on base.

3B Chone Figgins

Figgins is another guy that many teams have given up on too early. He is a premier source of steals, and thats about it. Most owners issues with Figgins lie in his inability to hit for a decent average. However, he's already quickly on the way to raising his average, hitting .481 in 7 August games so far. Expect a strong finish out of Figgins, who is on pace for about 15 more steals.

SS Juan Uribe

This is a guy who is owned in way too many leagues. Uribe is owned in 91.1% of standard ESPN leagues, something that really confuses me. He's probably one of the most unpredictable and sporadic hitters in the game today. He'll hit .400 for a week and launch 2 homeruns, and his ownership will skyrocket, then he'll hit .225 for 2 weeks and slowly get dropped. Back and forth back and forth.

Why should you drop him though? Because, Uribe is trending in the wrong direction. The chart below shows Uribe's AVG, OBP and SLG per month (non-cumulative). See if you can spot the trend.

Thats pretty alarming data, and should send up a red flag if you happen to be owning him. He might be a strong sell high candidate, but I doubt anyone will be buying him at this point.

OF Domonic Brown, Carlos Gonzalez, B.J. Upton

When Domonic Brown was called up, your league likely had an immediate bidding war over who was going to own him. Probably, whoever ended up winning the bidding war, paid too much. It's not that Brown isn't an elite prospect, it's that he won't get the opportunity just yet. As soon as Shane Victorino comes back from injury, Brown will lose playing time, and possibly be sent back to AAA. He will likely be an every day starter in 2011, replacing Jason Werth, but until then I don't think he'll have the massive impact owners initially assumed he would.

How could I write this column and not mention Carlos Gonzalez? Over the last week, CarGo vaulted himself to #1 on ESPN's Player Rater, making him the most valuable Fantasy player, overall, this season. An amazing run this kid is having. All I can say is, enjoy the ride if you have him, and do whatever you have to do to own him for the future. This kid is special, and while he might experience a slight drop in stats next season, the power/speed combo threat he owns is dangerous.

B.J. Upton, yet another name that owners have given up on this season. His terrible batting average and lack of all around production was likely the culprit. However, he playing much better lately, stealing 5 bases and launching 2 home runs in the last 2 weeks. The average still isn't there, but you can't complain about the power and speed production.

That raps up this week. If you would like us to write about a specific player, send us an email at sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com.

Preliminary 2011 Catcher Rankings

It's never too early to think about next season, especially in keeper leagues. Catcher has been, in recent years, a hit or miss position. You either get one of the elite catchers, or you wait and cross your fingers. In keeper leagues, it's good to always be thinking about the future.

1. Joe Mauer, Twins

Wouldn't my credibility go out the door if I didn't put Mauer 1st? He's a 3 time batting champ, and 2009 MVP. He's a career .326 hitter who hasn't hit below .293 for a season in his Major League career. The power is finally starting to come around (although took a hit in 2010), the RBI's have been steadily increasing. He should be the top ranked catcher on every list out there.

2. Brian McCann, Braves

This is the safe bet. Sure, you could go with any number of guys in this spot, but McCann consistently produces and rarely disappoints. He's having a bit of a down year in 2010, but I expect him to rebound next season.

3. Matt Wieters, Baltimore

Everybody knows he's having a down year in 2010, thats common knowlegde. This should actually drive his price down next season and you could get him cheaper if you beleive he's worht the risk. Wieters was once considered an elite prospect, one along the lines of "Joe Mauer" type skills. He has all the potential in the world, just needs to work on adjusting to big league pitchers as they adjust to his weaknesses.

4. Victor Martinez, Red Sox

This list is looking a lot like last seasons rankings so far. You can't take Martinez's 2010 numbers too seriously, as he was injured for a large portion of the season. He will play Catcher and 1B, and get regular playing time. His career batting average stands at .298, and maybe has the best power potential of any catcher. He will be 32 years old, however, and you have to start thinking about the wear and tear of the catcher position starting to get to him.

5. Buster Posey, Giants

Finally, a new comer to the list that woulnd't have been here a year earlier. Posey has impressed in his short campaign this season as the Giants Catcher and part time firstbasemen. The Giants must think he's a sure thing, becuase they traded away veteran catcher Benji Molina. You can expect a small regression, as he's hitting well over his head so far in 2010, but the bat is legit.

6. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

With Chris Snyder gone, Montero will get all the playing time at catcher. In regular duty, he has shown flashes of an elite catcher, but this is about as high as I would feel comfortable ranking him.

7. Mike Napoli, Angels

Napolis is a tough guy to read. His power is legit, and it's definitely his best asset. The problem is, he's not going to score a ton of runs, and his average might sting a little. He is never a safe bet to get constant playing time either, as Mike Scioscia has shown in the past he will play less talented catchers over Napoli if he struggles.

8. Carlos Santana, Indians

Here's hoping his knee surgery goes well, and his rehab is fast and effective. This kid could be top 5 given the right opportunities, but he's in a bad Cleveland lineup with little protection as he is quite possibly the Indians best hitter. I'm being conservative with this ranking because of the knee, but he has the potential to be great.

9. Geovany Soto, Cubs

Another guy with a down year that I feel will probably bounce back. He was an allstar as a rookie, and deservingly so. He has the skill set, he just needs to impliment it.

10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics

Suzuki is a guy many had pegged as a sleeper going into 2010, but injuries and generally average play has quited those voices. He has the potential, but I just don't like the ballpark or lineup he's in, as he doesn't have enough in the tank to do it all himself.

11. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays

Call me crazy, but this guy looks great. I can't imagine he'll play more than 110 games next season at the big leagues (if that), but the sky is the limit with this kid. He hit 31 homeruns in AAA this season before being called up, leading all of professional baseball in that category. An amazing talent this kid is, but we'll have to see how he responds to major league pitching before we declare him a Top 10 catcher.

12. Russell Martin, Dodgers

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Martin, once considered an elite catcher for his power and speed combo, has definitely lost a step, which is concerning because he's only 27 years old. His value has bottomed out, and he might be a nice sleeper pick if your willing to take the risk of a complete bust.

13. Jorge Posada, Yankees

This guy just doesn't seem to know when to quit. He's getting up their in years (he'll be 39 next season) and at some point his age will catch up with him, and the Yankees will move on to Jesus Montero. I don't expect Posada to lose a ton of playing time next season, but he could lose a significant chunk. Let's not forget that he has been getting injured more regularly in the past couple seasons, and he certainly wont be healthy for the entire 2011 season either.

14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates

This is a tough call, because now with the addition of Chris Snyder and Jeff Clement finally healthy, the catcher situation in Pittsburgh is in flux. I think Doumit is the guy, and Clement will play first, but nothing is a given in Pitt next season.

15. Miguel Olivo, Rockies

It's hard to beleive that for the better part of 2010 he was the top fantasy catcher. No one saw it coming, and no one will predict it again. He is an average catcher in a good situation, and nothing more.

16. Yadier Molina, Cardinals

This is a guy who is constantly overrated in a Fantasy sense. He's a great defensive catcher, and he's in a great lineup, but just take a look at his stats and tell me why is is drafted in the Top 10 catchers? This is about as high as I would rank him, and in most leagues you want nothing to do with him.

17. Tyler Flowers, White Sox

A definite sleeper pick here, as there is no guarantee of playing time, but he is the White Sox catcher of the future with A.J. Pierzynksi getting up there in years. He has the skill set, but he's strugged in AAA in 2010.

18. Ronny Paulino, Marlins

A shot in the dark, so to speak. He has shown short flashes of being a solid fantasy catcher, but nothing hints at long term production. You shouldn't want anything to do with him.

19. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers

With all the catchers they have in Texas, it's hard to see one getting a significant amount of playing time. Benji Molina could very well be in this spot or higher, but he's getting old and running out of talent.

20. Nick Hundley, Padres

For the last catcher on this list, I could have done much worse. He hasn't been terrible, and I've seen him owned in a 12-team league for short periods of time, however avoid if at all possible.

That does it for my early-August Preliminary Catcher Rankings. Expect a more detailed and updated list in the off-season. Any feedback is appreciated.

Instant Replay 8/6/2010

Another solid night for my Spot Start predictions. Let's recap how each player did.

Start Daisuke Matsuzaka, Thursday vs Oakland

This was a no brainer, as so-called "Spot Start connoisseur's" pray on weak teams. Daisuke has been anything but the model of consistency this season, however he performed flawlessly in this one. Daisuke went 8 innings, giving up only 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks, good for a sub-1.00 WHIP, and a 1.12 ERA. He managed to get 6 punch-outs, but you never want to expect to many strikeouts from him. This is about as good a start as you could invision him having all season.

Sit Kevin Slowey, Thursday at Tampa Bay

Slowey has been dominant lately, but this just wasn't a great matchup. Boy did he start out strong though, looking like he was going to prove me wrong. He started the game with 7 scoreless innings, recording 8 K's while only allowing 3 hits. Unfortunately for Slowey (and fortunately for me) everything unraveled in the 8th inning, where Slowey gave up 2 hits (one was a solo homerun), hit a batter and walked a batter. All 3 baserunners came around to score on Jason Bartlett's grand slam off of Ron Mahay. Not a bad outing by any means, as his WHIP was a lowely 0.65, and he did record 9 K's (a season high if I'm not mistaken). However, his ERA stood at 4.69 and he helped blow a 6 run lead, and although the Twins won, he didn't get a decision. Not a terrible outing, just not a great one.

So far, I've been spot on my spot starts and hit or miss with my sits. My Start pitchers own the following stats: 3-0, 30 IP, 0.60 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 25 K's. That is rather remarkable if I do say so myself, and if you took my advice in a Head-2-Head league, you likely will win 4 of 5 pitching categories based on those stats alone. My Sit pitchers actually turned out to be not so bad, just not as good as my Starts. The Sit guys posted a 2-1 record, with a 4.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 23 K's in 26.1 IP. Not bad, but it did hurt your ERA, and it's obvious that the Starts are having a better week than the Sits.

J.P. Arencibia to make Major League Debut

Arencibia, called up to take John Bucks spot on the Blue Jays roster, will get regular playing time for the next two weeks until Buck returns from injury. He's got some power potential and if your in need of a quick fix in the HR department, you could do worse. It's likely Arencibia will be Toronto's opening day catcher next season, but for now they are just trying to get him some experience in the big leagues. He's a good add if you just lost Carlos Santana for the season, but it's only a temporary fix.

*Update* The Blue Jays released their lineup today, and for the second straight day Jose Molina will be behind the plate. I don't see this happening much longer, as they didn't call up Arencibia to sit on the bench. Expect him to make his major league debut on Saturday.

Royals designate Jose Guillen for assignment

Basically, the Royals are cutting their losses and seeing what they can get for the journeyman. They have 10 days to either cut him, or trade him. The Royals will look to get some prospects in return, but there is no news yet if any team is seriously interesting.

Youkilis, Santana newest players out for season

Kevin Youkilis will have season ending thumb surgery, while Carlos Santana joins the same club with season ending knee surgery. Both of these injuries ironically occured in the same game. With the loss of Youkilis, it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox pack it in and try to deal some veteran players, or if they truely believe they can catch the Yankees or Rays. Youkilis was arguably the Red Sox most consistent player all season, and his loss will mean big changes in the Red Sox lineup.

Losing Carlos Santana doesn't mean much for the Indians, as they are planning for the future. The Indians are more concerned with Santana's long term health, and if that means season ending surgery, they are more than happy to do it. From a Fantasy perspective, all Santana owners are now scrambling for replacements, and Shin-Soo Choo just took a hit, as he no longer has Austin Kearns or Santana in the lineup to protect him. Choo is far and away the best Indians hitter now, and he likely won't see many good pitchers for the remainder of the season.

Strasburg to return to rotation on Tuesday

Stephen Strasburg made it through his simulated game without any problems, and appears ready to rejoin the rotation. This is good news for Nationals fans, as the injury proved to be fatigue. This is even better news for Strasburg's owners, as they missed his strikeout rate this past week.

Kila Ka'aihue gets playing time in Kansas City

However you pronounce his name, the "Kila-monster" appears to be finally given a chance to perform with the Royals. He's a guy with lots of potential, who has been in the minors too long. He probably won't have a major impact this season, although he will get playing time, but most of his value is in next season. If you can get him as a late round keeper, he might be worth the risk. He projects as an opening day starter next season, as a high risk high reward type guy.

Prospect Spotlight: J.P. Arencibia

With John Buck being placed on the DL, the Toronto Blue Jays called up hot hitting prospect J.P. Arencibia. Here is a little background information on the prospect and advice on how you should handle his call up if you're in need of a catcher.

Arencibia, born on January 5th, 1986 in Miami Florida, was drafted 21st overall in the 2007 Amatuer Draft out of the University of Tennessee. Before becoming a Volunteer, Arencibia attended the same High School that Alex Rodriguez hails from, Westminster Christian High School in Florida. Arencibia is tied for the most career home runs at Westminster Christian, with none other than A-Rod himself.

After four years at Tennessee, Arencibia had performed well enough to earn his high draft pick. He entered the minors with Auburn in Low-A ball. There was some debate as whether to move him to first base, or keep him as a catcher. The Blue Jays decided to leave him at catcher and work on his defense, which more than likely meant a longer road to the major leagues. Through 63 games with Auburn, he batted a mediocre .254, with only 3 home runs. His numbers weren't great, however it was his first exposure to professional baseball, and he was only 21 years old.

Entering 2008, Arencibia was promoted to High-A ball with Dunedin. He played in 59 games, and absolutely raked, smashing 13 homeruns, recording 62 RBI's and posting a .315 average. A call up was in order and Arencibia was shipped to AA New Hampshire. His strong season continued, with another 14 homeruns, 43 RBI's and a .282 average in only 67 games. His combine 2008 stat line was .298/.322/.527 with 27 HR, 105 RBI, 70 R in 126 games.

After the way the 2008 season went, Arencibia seemed a year or less away from a big league call up, and was considered one of the top prospects in baseball (Pre-2009 #43 according to Baseball America). His defense was making strides, and he projected to be an above-average catcher in the bigs. There seemed to be a bright future ahead for Arencibia.

Then 2009 came. Arencibia was promoted yet again to AAA Las Vegas. Arencibia labored through the season, posting marks of .236/.284/.444. He still managed to hit 21 HR's, so the power was still there, but it seemed as though he had taken a step back at the plate. While all this is happening, Arencibia still is making progress with his defense, so the Blue Jays are still commited to him as their catcher of the future, however that future is possibly a few years farther away than originally thought.

Entering 2010 still on the AAA Las Vegas roster, Arencibia had something to prove for the first time in his career. Up until his August 4th call up, Arencibia was torching AAA pitching to the tune of .303/.360/.639 with 31 HR and 79 RBI in 95 games. The prospect is back, and with a little help from John Buck, he's on the Blue Jays roster. With any success, he'll be there to stay.

Even with Arencibia's success in AAA, he's only the 3rd best catching prospect to be called up to the big leagues this year. By many scouts judgment, Carlos Santana and Buster Posey both trump his talent. If you just lost Santana, Arencibia is probably looking pretty good right now.

Below are Arencibia's career minor league stats.

Season	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	Auburn	63	249	58	3	31	25	0	.254	.309	.377
2008	Dunedin/New Hampshire	126	510	152	27	70	105	0	.298	.322	.527
2009	Las Vegas	116	500	110	21	67	75	0	.236	.284	.444
2010	Las Vegas	95	420	115	31	71	79	0	.303	.360	.639

It's hard to say what you can expect from him. Don't pay much attention to his batting average, as Mike Stanton can attest to the adjustment period it takes when playing in the big leagues. You can realistically expect some decent power and an average (at best) batting average. Depending on where he hits in the lineup, don't expect many runs out of him. If your desperate for power, he could be a good pickup, especially the way the Blue Jays are hitting balls out of the park this season.