Dark Horses for 2011

With the season quickly winding down, many teams are shifting their focus on preparing for next season. Who should you invest in? I feel that most of the guys that you want to keep are obvious, such as Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. But what about the guys that aren't elite fantasy players, but still worthy of keeper status? What about the guys you took a flyer on and only bid $1? If your not in a keeper league, who are the guys you should target in your draft next season?

Below are some bargains that could make or break your season in 2011. The dollar value was the "projected" 2010 draft day value in an auction style draft, according to ESPN's Draft Kit. If you don't have the option to keep these guys, I would still consider drafting them for cheap.

Brandon Morrow $1 ($2 AL-only)

If you took a flyer on him and only spent $1, you are definitely keeping this 26-year old strikeout master. So far in 2010, he has 151 in 127.1 innings pitched.

Throw out Morrow's amazing 17-strikeout 1-hitter, because if thats why you want to keep him, then you shouldn't be playing competitive fantasy baseball. Morrow has had an incredible strike-out rate all season long, with a respectable WHIP. His major problem is his high ERA, which one could argue is mostly attributed to having to play Boston and New York with frequent regularity.

His home and road splits are startling. 2.83 ERA (7-1 record) at home, but as soon as he leaves the Rogers Centre, the hits start piling up and so does his ERA, posting a 6.44 ERA on the road. There is no explaination for this, except maybe that in his young age, he still get's the gitters on the road.

If I had to bet, I would say he is a strong candidate for a great season next year. The type of season that Morrow is having, hints at future greatness. He is a guy that I would definitely target in drafts next season, if you weren't lucky enough to get him for cheap this season. Sure, it's possible that his 4.45 ERA is actually what it's supposed to be, but for $1, you can afford to take that risk.

Brandon Webb $2 ($10 NL-only)

If were talking dark horses for 2011, how could you not mention Brandon Webb. One upon a time, he was an elite pitcher in the league, but has missed nearly two full seasons because of injuries. Most people have forgotten about him, and some think his career might be over. If your only spending $2, I feel he is definitely worth the risk, and if he doesn't work out, you can drop him and lose minimal draft day value.

Jose Lopez $10 ($16 AL-only)

Boy is he having a down year, so it's risky to keep him at the value you got him this season. I do feel strongly he can turn it around, no matter what team he is on (the Mariners feel that he won't be back in 2011 when his contract expires). If you can get him cheap in the draft, his ceiling is very high. At his best, he's a top 2B/3B in the league, but at his worst, he's not even ownable in a 10-team league.

Year	G	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OPS
2006	151	603	78	170	28	8	10	79	26	80	5	.282	.724
2007	149	524	58	132	17	2	11	62	20	64	2	.252	.639
2008	159	644	80	191	41	1	17	89	27	67	6	.297	.765
2009	153	613	69	167	42	0	25	96	24	69	3	.272	.766
2010	107	425	33	102	21	0	6	45	17	48	3	.240	.603

It's no secret Lopez's numbers are down this season compared to his previous numbers. The average is as low as it's been since his 57 game stint with Seattle in 2004, and the OPS is lower than it's ever been.

The problem is that Lopez peripherals suggest this isn't exactly the product of bad luck. Although his BABIP is at it's lowest point since 2004, it's only .024 points lower than his career average, and .013 points lower than last season. Thats not exactly alarming data, as the nature of statistics allows for fluctuations like this without any reasoning behind it.

Also, Lopez's line-drive percentage (LD%) is nearly identicaly to his 2009 number as well as his career number, so thats certainly not the problem. His strikeout rate (K%) is actually lower than his career average, and identical to last season. His walk rate is the same as his career average, so he has the same approach at the plate as previous seasons.

Considering that all of those stats are exactly the same, it's possible that Lopez has lost a step or two, and also lost some power. His ISO has dropped 100 points from last season, and his steals are down. It's looking more and more like this is the problem, however he's only 26 years old, so how does that happen? It's possible that Lopez is just tired, or maybe there is a lingering injury. Whatever it is, I expect him to work on it in the off season, and correct those problems, leading to a strong comeback season in 2011.

Carlos Santana $1 ($6 AL-only)

If you drafted Carlos Santana in a keeper league, how smart are you feeling right now? Even though this season is lost, the damage looks like it's not as bad as it could have been, and Santana theoretically should make a full recovery and return to form next season.

Santana has shown in his short time in the bigs, that he can hit big league pitching, and he is already one of the Indians best and most feared pitchers.

I think that Santana has more value than other rookie catchers next season, including Buster Posey and J.P. Arencibia. He could easily be the All Star representative for the Indians next season, and is the base to that franchises future. He has the potential to be a top 3 Fantasy Catcher, and I would do whatever it takes to get him on draft day.

I can write more on some other guys in the future, so send in some emails to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com if you have any suggestions for more Dark Horses.

How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.