Instant Replay 8/6/2010

Another solid night for my Spot Start predictions. Let's recap how each player did.

Start Daisuke Matsuzaka, Thursday vs Oakland

This was a no brainer, as so-called "Spot Start connoisseur's" pray on weak teams. Daisuke has been anything but the model of consistency this season, however he performed flawlessly in this one. Daisuke went 8 innings, giving up only 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks, good for a sub-1.00 WHIP, and a 1.12 ERA. He managed to get 6 punch-outs, but you never want to expect to many strikeouts from him. This is about as good a start as you could invision him having all season.

Sit Kevin Slowey, Thursday at Tampa Bay

Slowey has been dominant lately, but this just wasn't a great matchup. Boy did he start out strong though, looking like he was going to prove me wrong. He started the game with 7 scoreless innings, recording 8 K's while only allowing 3 hits. Unfortunately for Slowey (and fortunately for me) everything unraveled in the 8th inning, where Slowey gave up 2 hits (one was a solo homerun), hit a batter and walked a batter. All 3 baserunners came around to score on Jason Bartlett's grand slam off of Ron Mahay. Not a bad outing by any means, as his WHIP was a lowely 0.65, and he did record 9 K's (a season high if I'm not mistaken). However, his ERA stood at 4.69 and he helped blow a 6 run lead, and although the Twins won, he didn't get a decision. Not a terrible outing, just not a great one.

So far, I've been spot on my spot starts and hit or miss with my sits. My Start pitchers own the following stats: 3-0, 30 IP, 0.60 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 25 K's. That is rather remarkable if I do say so myself, and if you took my advice in a Head-2-Head league, you likely will win 4 of 5 pitching categories based on those stats alone. My Sit pitchers actually turned out to be not so bad, just not as good as my Starts. The Sit guys posted a 2-1 record, with a 4.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 23 K's in 26.1 IP. Not bad, but it did hurt your ERA, and it's obvious that the Starts are having a better week than the Sits.

J.P. Arencibia to make Major League Debut

Arencibia, called up to take John Bucks spot on the Blue Jays roster, will get regular playing time for the next two weeks until Buck returns from injury. He's got some power potential and if your in need of a quick fix in the HR department, you could do worse. It's likely Arencibia will be Toronto's opening day catcher next season, but for now they are just trying to get him some experience in the big leagues. He's a good add if you just lost Carlos Santana for the season, but it's only a temporary fix.

*Update* The Blue Jays released their lineup today, and for the second straight day Jose Molina will be behind the plate. I don't see this happening much longer, as they didn't call up Arencibia to sit on the bench. Expect him to make his major league debut on Saturday.

Royals designate Jose Guillen for assignment

Basically, the Royals are cutting their losses and seeing what they can get for the journeyman. They have 10 days to either cut him, or trade him. The Royals will look to get some prospects in return, but there is no news yet if any team is seriously interesting.

Youkilis, Santana newest players out for season

Kevin Youkilis will have season ending thumb surgery, while Carlos Santana joins the same club with season ending knee surgery. Both of these injuries ironically occured in the same game. With the loss of Youkilis, it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox pack it in and try to deal some veteran players, or if they truely believe they can catch the Yankees or Rays. Youkilis was arguably the Red Sox most consistent player all season, and his loss will mean big changes in the Red Sox lineup.

Losing Carlos Santana doesn't mean much for the Indians, as they are planning for the future. The Indians are more concerned with Santana's long term health, and if that means season ending surgery, they are more than happy to do it. From a Fantasy perspective, all Santana owners are now scrambling for replacements, and Shin-Soo Choo just took a hit, as he no longer has Austin Kearns or Santana in the lineup to protect him. Choo is far and away the best Indians hitter now, and he likely won't see many good pitchers for the remainder of the season.

Strasburg to return to rotation on Tuesday

Stephen Strasburg made it through his simulated game without any problems, and appears ready to rejoin the rotation. This is good news for Nationals fans, as the injury proved to be fatigue. This is even better news for Strasburg's owners, as they missed his strikeout rate this past week.

Kila Ka'aihue gets playing time in Kansas City

However you pronounce his name, the "Kila-monster" appears to be finally given a chance to perform with the Royals. He's a guy with lots of potential, who has been in the minors too long. He probably won't have a major impact this season, although he will get playing time, but most of his value is in next season. If you can get him as a late round keeper, he might be worth the risk. He projects as an opening day starter next season, as a high risk high reward type guy.

How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.

Breaking News

Kevin Youkilis has just been put on the DL. I'm not going to speculate on his injury, but it didn't look serious at all, so this news is a bit surprising. This late in the season it hurts fantasy owners to lose their star players. There aren't a ton of options out there as temporary replacements either, but I'll quickly go over a few.

Jose Lopez, 3B Seattle - He's had a terrible year, and is likely sitting in your free agent pool because of it. Let's not forget the potential this guy has, and hope he can turn it around for two months.

Brett Wallace, 3B Houston - He's a bit of a sleeper, but if your in need of a power boost, you could do much worse. He won't steal a single base, he'll have a low average and probably won't score too many runs, but the potential for home runs and RBI's is there.

Chris Johnson, 3B Houston - The other (and possibly better) third basemen of the future in Houston. He's been a Top 10 third basemen in the last month, and is only owned in 24.5% of standard ESPN leagues.

Danny Valencia, 3B Minnesota - His average is way above his head, and is bound to come down, but he has the potential to get a decent amount of runs and RBI's given his playing time with Nick Punto and Orlando Hudson on the DL.

Now I'm just waiting for the inevitible news on Carlos Santana's injury. I assume he will go on the DL, but just hope that he's not out the rest of the season. Manny Acta said that he may have avoided serious ligament damage to knee and also that he "doesn't have any serious damage on his PCL or ACL." Here's hoping for the best for the promising young Cleveland prospect.

*Update* The Cleveland Indians just placed Carlos Santana on the 15-day DL. Further reports have revealed a "high grade strain of his LCL, and a hyperextended knee." There is still no timetable on his rehab, and surgery is still an option. Cleveland will probably do what's best for their star prospect's future, as this season means nothing to them, and he likely played in his last game of 2010 on Monday.

*Update* Kevin Youkilis' injury has been revealed as a "tear in the muscle that helps contract the thumb," and is apparently a rare injury. There is no timetable for his return just yet, but with the Red Sox in the thick of a penant race and Youkilis being their most consistent hitter, I would be shocked to see him out more than 2-3 weeks.

Instant Replay 8/3/10

I intended this post to analyze a few of my suedo-predictions in my last few posts, but I'll expand it to include news from games last night.

My fantasy team took some big blows last night, as I'm sure most of yours did. Carlos Santana suffered a horrific injury that appeared to be season ending. During a collision at home plate with Ryan Kalish, Santana's knee buckled and hyper extended backwards, as well as his ankle twisting sideways before his shoe popped off under the pressure. It was nasty anyway you look at it, and scary for his owners (let alone the Indians). In the same game Kevin Youkilis "jammed" his thumb on a swing and eventually came out of the game. MRI's are scheduled for today, and he likely will be out for a few days. Hopefully he can avoid a DL stint, as thats the last thing the Red Sox need at this point.

Alright, enough depressing injury news. Let's see how I did with the spot start predictions.

Started Travis Wood Cin, Monday at Pittsburgh

This was just about the perfect spot start. 7 scoreless innings, with 4 K's and a 0.43 WHIP, while recording the dominant win. It doesn't get much better than this when plucking pitchers from your free agent pool, and truth be told, Wood might not be a free agent in your league for much longer.

Sat Jeremey Hellickson

I whiffed on this one, as Hellickson also posted a very good spot start. 7 IP, 2 ER and 6 K's, good for a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP while also recording the win (over a very good Minnesota team). This start was arguably more impressive than Wood's, given the level of competition. I may have overlooked one thing when predicting this in the "Sit" column, that being the fact that this was only a one game stint and Hellickson had a chip on his shoulder with something to prove.

Going forward, I'm still holding strong with my Start Vin Mazzaro and Sit Scott Olson. For the rest of the day I'll hold my breath as Santana and Youkilis go in for MRI's on their respective injuries. Here's hoping for the best.