With the season quickly winding down, many teams are shifting their focus on preparing for next season. Who should you invest in? I feel that most of the guys that you want to keep are obvious, such as Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. But what about the guys that aren't elite fantasy players, but still worthy of keeper status? What about the guys you took a flyer on and only bid $1? If your not in a keeper league, who are the guys you should target in your draft next season?Below are some bargains that could make or break your season in 2011. The dollar value was the "projected" 2010 draft day value in an auction style draft, according to ESPN's Draft Kit. If you don't have the option to keep these guys, I would still consider drafting them for cheap.
Brandon Morrow $1 ($2 AL-only)
If you took a flyer on him and only spent $1, you are definitely keeping this 26-year old strikeout master. So far in 2010, he has 151 in 127.1 innings pitched.
Throw out Morrow's amazing 17-strikeout 1-hitter, because if thats why you want to keep him, then you shouldn't be playing competitive fantasy baseball. Morrow has had an incredible strike-out rate all season long, with a respectable WHIP. His major problem is his high ERA, which one could argue is mostly attributed to having to play Boston and New York with frequent regularity.
His home and road splits are startling. 2.83 ERA (7-1 record) at home, but as soon as he leaves the Rogers Centre, the hits start piling up and so does his ERA, posting a 6.44 ERA on the road. There is no explaination for this, except maybe that in his young age, he still get's the gitters on the road.
If I had to bet, I would say he is a strong candidate for a great season next year. The type of season that Morrow is having, hints at future greatness. He is a guy that I would definitely target in drafts next season, if you weren't lucky enough to get him for cheap this season. Sure, it's possible that his 4.45 ERA is actually what it's supposed to be, but for $1, you can afford to take that risk.
Brandon Webb $2 ($10 NL-only)
If were talking dark horses for 2011, how could you not mention Brandon Webb. One upon a time, he was an elite pitcher in the league, but has missed nearly two full seasons because of injuries. Most people have forgotten about him, and some think his career might be over. If your only spending $2, I feel he is definitely worth the risk, and if he doesn't work out, you can drop him and lose minimal draft day value.
Jose Lopez $10 ($16 AL-only)
Boy is he having a down year, so it's risky to keep him at the value you got him this season. I do feel strongly he can turn it around, no matter what team he is on (the Mariners feel that he won't be back in 2011 when his contract expires). If you can get him cheap in the draft, his ceiling is very high. At his best, he's a top 2B/3B in the league, but at his worst, he's not even ownable in a 10-team league.
It's no secret Lopez's numbers are down this season compared to his previous numbers. The average is as low as it's been since his 57 game stint with Seattle in 2004, and the OPS is lower than it's ever been.
The problem is that Lopez peripherals suggest this isn't exactly the product of bad luck. Although his BABIP is at it's lowest point since 2004, it's only .024 points lower than his career average, and .013 points lower than last season. Thats not exactly alarming data, as the nature of statistics allows for fluctuations like this without any reasoning behind it.
Also, Lopez's line-drive percentage (LD%) is nearly identicaly to his 2009 number as well as his career number, so thats certainly not the problem. His strikeout rate (K%) is actually lower than his career average, and identical to last season. His walk rate is the same as his career average, so he has the same approach at the plate as previous seasons.
Considering that all of those stats are exactly the same, it's possible that Lopez has lost a step or two, and also lost some power. His ISO has dropped 100 points from last season, and his steals are down. It's looking more and more like this is the problem, however he's only 26 years old, so how does that happen? It's possible that Lopez is just tired, or maybe there is a lingering injury. Whatever it is, I expect him to work on it in the off season, and correct those problems, leading to a strong comeback season in 2011.
Carlos Santana $1 ($6 AL-only)
If you drafted Carlos Santana in a keeper league, how smart are you feeling right now? Even though this season is lost, the damage looks like it's not as bad as it could have been, and Santana theoretically should make a full recovery and return to form next season.
Santana has shown in his short time in the bigs, that he can hit big league pitching, and he is already one of the Indians best and most feared pitchers.
I think that Santana has more value than other rookie catchers next season, including Buster Posey and J.P. Arencibia. He could easily be the All Star representative for the Indians next season, and is the base to that franchises future. He has the potential to be a top 3 Fantasy Catcher, and I would do whatever it takes to get him on draft day.
I can write more on some other guys in the future, so send in some emails to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com if you have any suggestions for more Dark Horses.
Throw out Morrow's amazing 17-strikeout 1-hitter, because if thats why you want to keep him, then you shouldn't be playing competitive fantasy baseball. Morrow has had an incredible strike-out rate all season long, with a respectable WHIP. His major problem is his high ERA, which one could argue is mostly attributed to having to play Boston and New York with frequent regularity.
His home and road splits are startling. 2.83 ERA (7-1 record) at home, but as soon as he leaves the Rogers Centre, the hits start piling up and so does his ERA, posting a 6.44 ERA on the road. There is no explaination for this, except maybe that in his young age, he still get's the gitters on the road.
If I had to bet, I would say he is a strong candidate for a great season next year. The type of season that Morrow is having, hints at future greatness. He is a guy that I would definitely target in drafts next season, if you weren't lucky enough to get him for cheap this season. Sure, it's possible that his 4.45 ERA is actually what it's supposed to be, but for $1, you can afford to take that risk.
Brandon Webb $2 ($10 NL-only)
If were talking dark horses for 2011, how could you not mention Brandon Webb. One upon a time, he was an elite pitcher in the league, but has missed nearly two full seasons because of injuries. Most people have forgotten about him, and some think his career might be over. If your only spending $2, I feel he is definitely worth the risk, and if he doesn't work out, you can drop him and lose minimal draft day value.
Jose Lopez $10 ($16 AL-only)
Boy is he having a down year, so it's risky to keep him at the value you got him this season. I do feel strongly he can turn it around, no matter what team he is on (the Mariners feel that he won't be back in 2011 when his contract expires). If you can get him cheap in the draft, his ceiling is very high. At his best, he's a top 2B/3B in the league, but at his worst, he's not even ownable in a 10-team league.
| Year | G | AB | H | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OPS |
| 2006 | 151 | 603 | 78 | 170 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 79 | 26 | 80 | 5 | .282 | .724 |
| 2007 | 149 | 524 | 58 | 132 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 62 | 20 | 64 | 2 | .252 | .639 |
| 2008 | 159 | 644 | 80 | 191 | 41 | 1 | 17 | 89 | 27 | 67 | 6 | .297 | .765 |
| 2009 | 153 | 613 | 69 | 167 | 42 | 0 | 25 | 96 | 24 | 69 | 3 | .272 | .766 |
| 2010 | 107 | 425 | 33 | 102 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 17 | 48 | 3 | .240 | .603 |
It's no secret Lopez's numbers are down this season compared to his previous numbers. The average is as low as it's been since his 57 game stint with Seattle in 2004, and the OPS is lower than it's ever been.
The problem is that Lopez peripherals suggest this isn't exactly the product of bad luck. Although his BABIP is at it's lowest point since 2004, it's only .024 points lower than his career average, and .013 points lower than last season. Thats not exactly alarming data, as the nature of statistics allows for fluctuations like this without any reasoning behind it.
Also, Lopez's line-drive percentage (LD%) is nearly identicaly to his 2009 number as well as his career number, so thats certainly not the problem. His strikeout rate (K%) is actually lower than his career average, and identical to last season. His walk rate is the same as his career average, so he has the same approach at the plate as previous seasons.
Considering that all of those stats are exactly the same, it's possible that Lopez has lost a step or two, and also lost some power. His ISO has dropped 100 points from last season, and his steals are down. It's looking more and more like this is the problem, however he's only 26 years old, so how does that happen? It's possible that Lopez is just tired, or maybe there is a lingering injury. Whatever it is, I expect him to work on it in the off season, and correct those problems, leading to a strong comeback season in 2011.
Carlos Santana $1 ($6 AL-only)
If you drafted Carlos Santana in a keeper league, how smart are you feeling right now? Even though this season is lost, the damage looks like it's not as bad as it could have been, and Santana theoretically should make a full recovery and return to form next season.
Santana has shown in his short time in the bigs, that he can hit big league pitching, and he is already one of the Indians best and most feared pitchers.
I think that Santana has more value than other rookie catchers next season, including Buster Posey and J.P. Arencibia. He could easily be the All Star representative for the Indians next season, and is the base to that franchises future. He has the potential to be a top 3 Fantasy Catcher, and I would do whatever it takes to get him on draft day.
I can write more on some other guys in the future, so send in some emails to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com if you have any suggestions for more Dark Horses.
