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Prospect Spotlight: Chris Carter

Chris Carter is the power hitting firstbasemen of the future for the Oakland Athletics, this is common knowledge. What can you expect from him, for the rest of this season and for 2011?

According to Baseball America, Chris Carter was the 28th Ranked Prospect for their Pre-2010 rankings. While that might not seem extremely impressive, 28 is only one spot behind Brett Wallace, and ahead of current Major Leaguers Michael Saunders (Mariners), Wade Davis (Rays), Jason Castro (Astros), Redi Brignac (Rays), Ike Davis (Mets), Dan Hudson (Diamondbacks), Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Mike Leake (Reds), Austin Jackson (Tigers), Drew Storen (Nationals), Andrew Cashner (Cubs), Peter Bourjos (Angels) and Jake Arrieta (Orioles). Thats pretty elite company when it comes to prospects.

According to Baseball America, Carter's best tool is his power, graded a 75 out of a possible 80. Thats pretty elite power, and this is shown by his minor league stats over the last few seasons.

Level	G	2B	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Rk-A	82	24	16	64	4	.273	.373	.522
A	126	27	25	93	3	.291	.383	.522
A+	137	32	39	104	4	.259	.361	.569
AA-AAA	138	43	28	115	13	.329	.422	.570
AAA	113	29	27	89	1	.262	.368	.531

Even if it is High-A ball, 39 homers is an impressive season. Carters batting average seems to fluctuate each season, and his career mark is only at .285. He strikes out a decent clip, whiffing on 676 of 2471 at bats, good for a 27% whiff-rate. He also has roughly a 2:1 K:BB ratio.

In the future, Carter likely will be eligible at 1B and OF, which increases his value. He will hit for some power in his career, but the average might be lacking. I wouldn't count him out as a slow-poke either, shown by his 13 steals for Oaklands AA affiliate. He never will have elite speed, but I think 10 steals in a season is possible at some point in his career. Remember the guy is only 23 years old.

What can you expect from him in the future? I think his skill set is a lot like that of Marlin Mike Stanton, in that he will hit for power, has the potential to drive in a lot of runs, but his average might turn a lot of people off. Many young players face a harsh adjustment period when they reach the majors, and their batting averages drop. Below are my predictions for 2011 if Carter was to play a full season.

G	2B	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
135	38	21	85	5	.260	.350	.520

I feel this is a realistic expectation, but his upside tells me he could do much better. He is a good keeper candidate if you can get him for extremely cheap, but I would draft him with caution next season.

Dark Horses for 2011

With the season quickly winding down, many teams are shifting their focus on preparing for next season. Who should you invest in? I feel that most of the guys that you want to keep are obvious, such as Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. But what about the guys that aren't elite fantasy players, but still worthy of keeper status? What about the guys you took a flyer on and only bid $1? If your not in a keeper league, who are the guys you should target in your draft next season?

Below are some bargains that could make or break your season in 2011. The dollar value was the "projected" 2010 draft day value in an auction style draft, according to ESPN's Draft Kit. If you don't have the option to keep these guys, I would still consider drafting them for cheap.

Brandon Morrow $1 ($2 AL-only)

If you took a flyer on him and only spent $1, you are definitely keeping this 26-year old strikeout master. So far in 2010, he has 151 in 127.1 innings pitched.

Throw out Morrow's amazing 17-strikeout 1-hitter, because if thats why you want to keep him, then you shouldn't be playing competitive fantasy baseball. Morrow has had an incredible strike-out rate all season long, with a respectable WHIP. His major problem is his high ERA, which one could argue is mostly attributed to having to play Boston and New York with frequent regularity.

His home and road splits are startling. 2.83 ERA (7-1 record) at home, but as soon as he leaves the Rogers Centre, the hits start piling up and so does his ERA, posting a 6.44 ERA on the road. There is no explaination for this, except maybe that in his young age, he still get's the gitters on the road.

If I had to bet, I would say he is a strong candidate for a great season next year. The type of season that Morrow is having, hints at future greatness. He is a guy that I would definitely target in drafts next season, if you weren't lucky enough to get him for cheap this season. Sure, it's possible that his 4.45 ERA is actually what it's supposed to be, but for $1, you can afford to take that risk.

Brandon Webb $2 ($10 NL-only)

If were talking dark horses for 2011, how could you not mention Brandon Webb. One upon a time, he was an elite pitcher in the league, but has missed nearly two full seasons because of injuries. Most people have forgotten about him, and some think his career might be over. If your only spending $2, I feel he is definitely worth the risk, and if he doesn't work out, you can drop him and lose minimal draft day value.

Jose Lopez $10 ($16 AL-only)

Boy is he having a down year, so it's risky to keep him at the value you got him this season. I do feel strongly he can turn it around, no matter what team he is on (the Mariners feel that he won't be back in 2011 when his contract expires). If you can get him cheap in the draft, his ceiling is very high. At his best, he's a top 2B/3B in the league, but at his worst, he's not even ownable in a 10-team league.

Year	G	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OPS
2006	151	603	78	170	28	8	10	79	26	80	5	.282	.724
2007	149	524	58	132	17	2	11	62	20	64	2	.252	.639
2008	159	644	80	191	41	1	17	89	27	67	6	.297	.765
2009	153	613	69	167	42	0	25	96	24	69	3	.272	.766
2010	107	425	33	102	21	0	6	45	17	48	3	.240	.603

It's no secret Lopez's numbers are down this season compared to his previous numbers. The average is as low as it's been since his 57 game stint with Seattle in 2004, and the OPS is lower than it's ever been.

The problem is that Lopez peripherals suggest this isn't exactly the product of bad luck. Although his BABIP is at it's lowest point since 2004, it's only .024 points lower than his career average, and .013 points lower than last season. Thats not exactly alarming data, as the nature of statistics allows for fluctuations like this without any reasoning behind it.

Also, Lopez's line-drive percentage (LD%) is nearly identicaly to his 2009 number as well as his career number, so thats certainly not the problem. His strikeout rate (K%) is actually lower than his career average, and identical to last season. His walk rate is the same as his career average, so he has the same approach at the plate as previous seasons.

Considering that all of those stats are exactly the same, it's possible that Lopez has lost a step or two, and also lost some power. His ISO has dropped 100 points from last season, and his steals are down. It's looking more and more like this is the problem, however he's only 26 years old, so how does that happen? It's possible that Lopez is just tired, or maybe there is a lingering injury. Whatever it is, I expect him to work on it in the off season, and correct those problems, leading to a strong comeback season in 2011.

Carlos Santana $1 ($6 AL-only)

If you drafted Carlos Santana in a keeper league, how smart are you feeling right now? Even though this season is lost, the damage looks like it's not as bad as it could have been, and Santana theoretically should make a full recovery and return to form next season.

Santana has shown in his short time in the bigs, that he can hit big league pitching, and he is already one of the Indians best and most feared pitchers.

I think that Santana has more value than other rookie catchers next season, including Buster Posey and J.P. Arencibia. He could easily be the All Star representative for the Indians next season, and is the base to that franchises future. He has the potential to be a top 3 Fantasy Catcher, and I would do whatever it takes to get him on draft day.

I can write more on some other guys in the future, so send in some emails to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com if you have any suggestions for more Dark Horses.

MRI: Maximizing Relief Innings

With all the wealth of information available to you and your opponents, it's becoming ever increasingly difficult to gain an edge. Strategy has become an extremely important part of the game, and it's highly unlikely that many leagues are won on draft day these days.

MRI stands for Maximizing Relief Innings. The point of this strategy is to maximize innings pitched by elite set-up men, to gain some extra points when you've reached your Games Started limit. The point is to have a couple of these guys on your roster all season, and when you get to the Games Started limit, to fill your pitching staff when them.

The pro's of this strategy far outweigh the con's. You only should have elite guys, with great strikeout rates, and low ERA's and WHIP's. These same guys are often next in line for closer roles, so owning them has an even higher added bonus. Below I'll outline some of the elite guys you should target, and consequently, the guys that next season may be in a closer role.

Hong Chih Kuo, Dodgers

Being the primary set-up man for Broxton isn't the best situation to be in for an aspiring closer. However, Kuo has been absolutely amazing this season, even earning an All Star spot out of the bullpen.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Hong-Chih Kuo	36	38.2	48	3	3	0.93	0.83

Those are solid stats by any means, and currently Kuo is the 29th ranked relief pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater, which tells you he should be owned in just about every format available.

If your league tracks Holds, he has even more value. As one of the elite set-up men in the league, Kuo has recorded 16 Holds this season, and 47 in his short career.

Daniel Bard, Red Sox

Another elite set-up man blocked by an elite closer. If it wasn't for Jonathan Papelbon, Bard may already be the Sox closer, and it remains to be seen if the Sox will keep Papelbon around for another season or move on to Bard, who seems ready to take over the closer role. He's only 25, with 2 seasons of big league ball under his belt, but the kid throws gas, consistently in the upper 90s.

In the very lease, Bard should close for some team in the near future, but for now, still owns quite a bit of value. His stats so far this season:

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Daniel Bard	51	52.0	54	1	3	1.90	0.87

Joel Hanrahan, Pirates

He has since been given (at least) a share of the closer role, with the departure of Octavio Dotel, however even before that he had value. Hanrahan's stats on the year aren't all that impressive, however if you throw out the infamous 20-run game against Milwaukee, his stats look like this for the season.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Joel Hanrahan	50	48.1	68	2	1	3.18	0.99

The ERA isn't great, but it certainly won't hurt you. And the strikeout rate is phenominal, and mainly the reason you want him. The added bonus of future save chances is a huge plus also.

Evan Meek, Pirates

The other half of the dynamic Pirates set-up duo. Meek has arguably had the better season, however Hanrahan will likely get more save chances based purely on the fact that he's had previous save experience. The strikeout rate isn't quite that of an elite set-up guy, but the ERA and WHIP are his main attractions.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Evan Meek	51	62.1	53	4	1	1.44	0.91

Luke Gregerson, Padres

Gregerson has had a phenominal sophomore season with the Friars, posting a whip that almost unheard of for someone who isn't considered the premier closer in the league. In fact, he's not even next in line to get the closer role, as Mike Adams would likely get the all if Heath Bell was ever traded.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Luke Gregerson	53	53.0	66	3	1	2.55	0.70

With the Padres bullpen being as good as it is this season, Gregerson has risen to near the top of the pack with his excellent WHIP and strikeout rate.

Mike Adams, Padres

Arguably more experienced than Gregerson, and likely higher in the pecking order, Adams has done enough to get his name on this list of elite set-up guys. He spent a while on the DL, otherwise his numbers might be better, but he has still more than held his own.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Mike Adams	43	42.1	47	2	0	2.13	0.94

With Heath Bell being as solid a closer as he is, it would be hard for Adams to jump him barring any injury or trade, however the future is bright for this aspiring closer, who's posted 47 Holds in the last 3 seasons combine.

Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay

Benoit probably is one of the most underrated relief guys in the league. He's never been an elite pitcher in his career, which probably has aided in people passing his name over. However, he has been extremely solid for the Rays this season, bridging the gap from starter to Rafael Soriano to perfection. You might consider adding him, despite his recent struggles.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Joaquin Benoit	42	40.2	54	0	1	1.33	0.64

It might be easy to say "he's gotten lucky this far, that's why his ERA is so low." However, it's hard not to believe this is real, when Benoit posts as low a WHIP as he has over 40+ innings, consistently.

J.J. Putz, White Sox

Putz is a guy many other teams were scouting as potential closers at the trade deadline, however with the White Sox in the heat of a penant race, they elected to hold onto him for the stretch run. It's worked out to their advantage so far.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
J.J. Putz	44	41.1	46	5	3	1.96	0.85

Matt Thornton, White Sox

The White Sox, along with the Pirates and Padres, have one of the best bullpens in the league. Thornton is a big reason why that is so. He got nominated to his first All Star game this season, and his numbers certainly support why. He's been as dominant as any left handed reliever this season, and could be put into more high pressure situations going forward.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Matt Thorton	47	44.0	60	3	5	2.25	1.07

Frank Francisco, Rangers

This is a guy who gets overlooked because he started the season as a closer and has since lost it. However, since losing the closer role and taking over a set-up role, he's regained his form and performed very well. His stats since losing the closer role:

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Frank Francisco	32	32.2	40	2	0	2.76	1.04

Certainly not elite, but good stats none-the-less. He's a good source of cheap strikeouts with a low risk for ERA and WHIP. He's a valuable asset, and if anything were to happen to Neftali Feliz, he would be the closer the Rangers need.

Dark Horses

The following two guys haven't been in the big leagues very long, but they have promising futures and in deeper keeper leauges deserve looks as their futures as closers isn't a matter of if, rather a matter of when.

Ernesto Frieri, Padres

We told you the Padres bullpen was elite, didn't we? Frieri was leading the PCL in Saves with 17 at the time of his original promotion, so he has closer experience and looks to be the closer of the future for the Padres (or another team). In his short stint in the bigs this season, Frieri has posted staggering numbers.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Ernesto Frieri	11	9.2	18	0	0	0.93	0.72

Can you imagine if he could keep that up for an entire season? 100+ K's is unheard of for all but the most elite closers. He will likely stick with the team, but at the very least be back with the September call-ups.

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

This guy has only been pitching for about a full season, as he was converted from a catcher in 2009. Since then, he's posted monster numbers in split seasons with the Dodgers High A and AA affiliates, shown by his stats below.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
A+/AA	22	27.0	50	4	8	1.67	1.14
MLB	6	6.0	9	0	0	0.00	0.83

Starting Lineup: Position Players 8/9/2010

Every week, we go over one player at each position and give some recent news and predictions about them. Last weeks Starting Lineup can be found here.

Catcher J.P. Arencibia

It's quite possible that my article last week cursed a few players, namely last weeks featured catcher, Carlos Santana. Only a few days after my post raving about Santana, he goes down with a serious knee injury that required season-ending surgery.

This week, we'll spotlight J.P. Arencibia. I posted about his background but it doesn't appear many people got the memo. If you would have taken my advice and picked him up, you would have gotten the 4-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI stat line that he posted in his debut. Now, not even I could have predicted something that good, but we'll pretend I did.

Going forward, you might want to take caution with him. He will get the majority of the starts until John Buck returns from injury (sitting every 3rd game), that much is clear. What's not clear is what will happen to Arencibia when Buck actually does return. It's likely he will go back to Vegas, so he cal play every day rather than wasting his talent on the bench. I feel he could be Toronto's starting catcher as early as opening day 2011, and his value just skyrocketted in keeper leagues.

1B Justin Morneau

He came out of the gates absolutely on fire in 2010, becoming one of the most valuable first basemen in all of fantasy baseball. It was common knowledge he's had previous issues with back problems, but I don't think anyone was worried about a concussion. Thats exactly what happened, and the problem with concussions, is that we never have a definite time table of recovery.

I think that Morneau will be back in 2-3 weeks, but even when he comes back he might get a rest day rather frequently to aid in the long term recovery. Concussion symptoms can linger for months after the initial injury (Aaron Hill missed an entire season because of one).

Because of this, I feel that unless you're in a keeper league, you should try to sell on Morneau now. You will get much less value out of him then you expect given the stats he's produced this season. Obviously, don't be so quick to pull the trigger in a keeper league, but I would take whatever I could get for him in a yearly league.

2B Orlando Hudson

Last weeks featured second basemen, also went down with an injury. Thankfully for the Twins, Orlando Hudson was ready to come off the DL and resume his regular play at 2B. Great news for his owners, as the Twins are in the heat of a penant race and need all the help they can get.

Hudson can be a good source of runs, while also posting a decent average. Only expect home runs and stolen bases sporadically, and don't count on a ton of RBI's. His value mostly lies in batting in front of Joe Mauer. He is a threat to score a run every single time he gets on base.

3B Chone Figgins

Figgins is another guy that many teams have given up on too early. He is a premier source of steals, and thats about it. Most owners issues with Figgins lie in his inability to hit for a decent average. However, he's already quickly on the way to raising his average, hitting .481 in 7 August games so far. Expect a strong finish out of Figgins, who is on pace for about 15 more steals.

SS Juan Uribe

This is a guy who is owned in way too many leagues. Uribe is owned in 91.1% of standard ESPN leagues, something that really confuses me. He's probably one of the most unpredictable and sporadic hitters in the game today. He'll hit .400 for a week and launch 2 homeruns, and his ownership will skyrocket, then he'll hit .225 for 2 weeks and slowly get dropped. Back and forth back and forth.

Why should you drop him though? Because, Uribe is trending in the wrong direction. The chart below shows Uribe's AVG, OBP and SLG per month (non-cumulative). See if you can spot the trend.

Thats pretty alarming data, and should send up a red flag if you happen to be owning him. He might be a strong sell high candidate, but I doubt anyone will be buying him at this point.

OF Domonic Brown, Carlos Gonzalez, B.J. Upton

When Domonic Brown was called up, your league likely had an immediate bidding war over who was going to own him. Probably, whoever ended up winning the bidding war, paid too much. It's not that Brown isn't an elite prospect, it's that he won't get the opportunity just yet. As soon as Shane Victorino comes back from injury, Brown will lose playing time, and possibly be sent back to AAA. He will likely be an every day starter in 2011, replacing Jason Werth, but until then I don't think he'll have the massive impact owners initially assumed he would.

How could I write this column and not mention Carlos Gonzalez? Over the last week, CarGo vaulted himself to #1 on ESPN's Player Rater, making him the most valuable Fantasy player, overall, this season. An amazing run this kid is having. All I can say is, enjoy the ride if you have him, and do whatever you have to do to own him for the future. This kid is special, and while he might experience a slight drop in stats next season, the power/speed combo threat he owns is dangerous.

B.J. Upton, yet another name that owners have given up on this season. His terrible batting average and lack of all around production was likely the culprit. However, he playing much better lately, stealing 5 bases and launching 2 home runs in the last 2 weeks. The average still isn't there, but you can't complain about the power and speed production.

That raps up this week. If you would like us to write about a specific player, send us an email at sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com.

Preliminary 2011 Catcher Rankings

It's never too early to think about next season, especially in keeper leagues. Catcher has been, in recent years, a hit or miss position. You either get one of the elite catchers, or you wait and cross your fingers. In keeper leagues, it's good to always be thinking about the future.

1. Joe Mauer, Twins

Wouldn't my credibility go out the door if I didn't put Mauer 1st? He's a 3 time batting champ, and 2009 MVP. He's a career .326 hitter who hasn't hit below .293 for a season in his Major League career. The power is finally starting to come around (although took a hit in 2010), the RBI's have been steadily increasing. He should be the top ranked catcher on every list out there.

2. Brian McCann, Braves

This is the safe bet. Sure, you could go with any number of guys in this spot, but McCann consistently produces and rarely disappoints. He's having a bit of a down year in 2010, but I expect him to rebound next season.

3. Matt Wieters, Baltimore

Everybody knows he's having a down year in 2010, thats common knowlegde. This should actually drive his price down next season and you could get him cheaper if you beleive he's worht the risk. Wieters was once considered an elite prospect, one along the lines of "Joe Mauer" type skills. He has all the potential in the world, just needs to work on adjusting to big league pitchers as they adjust to his weaknesses.

4. Victor Martinez, Red Sox

This list is looking a lot like last seasons rankings so far. You can't take Martinez's 2010 numbers too seriously, as he was injured for a large portion of the season. He will play Catcher and 1B, and get regular playing time. His career batting average stands at .298, and maybe has the best power potential of any catcher. He will be 32 years old, however, and you have to start thinking about the wear and tear of the catcher position starting to get to him.

5. Buster Posey, Giants

Finally, a new comer to the list that woulnd't have been here a year earlier. Posey has impressed in his short campaign this season as the Giants Catcher and part time firstbasemen. The Giants must think he's a sure thing, becuase they traded away veteran catcher Benji Molina. You can expect a small regression, as he's hitting well over his head so far in 2010, but the bat is legit.

6. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

With Chris Snyder gone, Montero will get all the playing time at catcher. In regular duty, he has shown flashes of an elite catcher, but this is about as high as I would feel comfortable ranking him.

7. Mike Napoli, Angels

Napolis is a tough guy to read. His power is legit, and it's definitely his best asset. The problem is, he's not going to score a ton of runs, and his average might sting a little. He is never a safe bet to get constant playing time either, as Mike Scioscia has shown in the past he will play less talented catchers over Napoli if he struggles.

8. Carlos Santana, Indians

Here's hoping his knee surgery goes well, and his rehab is fast and effective. This kid could be top 5 given the right opportunities, but he's in a bad Cleveland lineup with little protection as he is quite possibly the Indians best hitter. I'm being conservative with this ranking because of the knee, but he has the potential to be great.

9. Geovany Soto, Cubs

Another guy with a down year that I feel will probably bounce back. He was an allstar as a rookie, and deservingly so. He has the skill set, he just needs to impliment it.

10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics

Suzuki is a guy many had pegged as a sleeper going into 2010, but injuries and generally average play has quited those voices. He has the potential, but I just don't like the ballpark or lineup he's in, as he doesn't have enough in the tank to do it all himself.

11. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays

Call me crazy, but this guy looks great. I can't imagine he'll play more than 110 games next season at the big leagues (if that), but the sky is the limit with this kid. He hit 31 homeruns in AAA this season before being called up, leading all of professional baseball in that category. An amazing talent this kid is, but we'll have to see how he responds to major league pitching before we declare him a Top 10 catcher.

12. Russell Martin, Dodgers

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Martin, once considered an elite catcher for his power and speed combo, has definitely lost a step, which is concerning because he's only 27 years old. His value has bottomed out, and he might be a nice sleeper pick if your willing to take the risk of a complete bust.

13. Jorge Posada, Yankees

This guy just doesn't seem to know when to quit. He's getting up their in years (he'll be 39 next season) and at some point his age will catch up with him, and the Yankees will move on to Jesus Montero. I don't expect Posada to lose a ton of playing time next season, but he could lose a significant chunk. Let's not forget that he has been getting injured more regularly in the past couple seasons, and he certainly wont be healthy for the entire 2011 season either.

14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates

This is a tough call, because now with the addition of Chris Snyder and Jeff Clement finally healthy, the catcher situation in Pittsburgh is in flux. I think Doumit is the guy, and Clement will play first, but nothing is a given in Pitt next season.

15. Miguel Olivo, Rockies

It's hard to beleive that for the better part of 2010 he was the top fantasy catcher. No one saw it coming, and no one will predict it again. He is an average catcher in a good situation, and nothing more.

16. Yadier Molina, Cardinals

This is a guy who is constantly overrated in a Fantasy sense. He's a great defensive catcher, and he's in a great lineup, but just take a look at his stats and tell me why is is drafted in the Top 10 catchers? This is about as high as I would rank him, and in most leagues you want nothing to do with him.

17. Tyler Flowers, White Sox

A definite sleeper pick here, as there is no guarantee of playing time, but he is the White Sox catcher of the future with A.J. Pierzynksi getting up there in years. He has the skill set, but he's strugged in AAA in 2010.

18. Ronny Paulino, Marlins

A shot in the dark, so to speak. He has shown short flashes of being a solid fantasy catcher, but nothing hints at long term production. You shouldn't want anything to do with him.

19. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers

With all the catchers they have in Texas, it's hard to see one getting a significant amount of playing time. Benji Molina could very well be in this spot or higher, but he's getting old and running out of talent.

20. Nick Hundley, Padres

For the last catcher on this list, I could have done much worse. He hasn't been terrible, and I've seen him owned in a 12-team league for short periods of time, however avoid if at all possible.

That does it for my early-August Preliminary Catcher Rankings. Expect a more detailed and updated list in the off-season. Any feedback is appreciated.

Crash course in Advanced Fantasy Statistics

If you ever took an advanced statistics course in college, the above image should make you shudder, I know it does that to me.

With all the wealth of information out there today, how is it possible to know something about a players fantasy value that every other person in your league doesn't know? It's getting increasingly difficult to gain an edge these days over your fellow league mates. With this post, I'll give a short (or long, depending on which way you look at it) crash course in some advanced statistics that will probably help you in the long run.

What are advanced statistics? You may have heard of BABIP among others, but what about ISO or WAR? What about FIP? Confused yet? If so, don't worry. Over the course of this post you should gain a basic understanding of what these statistics are and how to use them to your advantage.

BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play

Lets start with an easy one. What you see is what you get. This is basically a players average of balls hit into the field of play. The simplest way to calculate this is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO). Basically you are taking strikeouts and homeruns out of a players average and calculating what percentage of the balls hit into play landed safely.

The simplest way to use BABIP, is to analyze "luck." If you think about it, of every single ball a player hits into the field of play, there should be a single constant percentage that land safely for hits. This population mean is subject to fluctuating standard deviations, and is subject to change itself (if the player changes their swing or approach at the plate) but all in all it should be fairly simple to predict what percentage of balls a guy hits in play will land safe, and what percent will be recorded as outs. This is a useful statistic if you know how to analyze trends. It's really simple, actually. The best and easiest example is Aaron Hill. Take a look at the table below.

Year	BABIP
2005	.299
2006	.319
2007	.324
2008	.301
2009	.288
2010	.202
Career	.294

Without knowing anything about BABIP, you should be able to tell something is going wrong in 2010. Now, combine that with the simple fact that I just told you, that BABIP is commonly used to measure "luck." It is obvious to assume that Aaron Hill is experiencing a bit of bad luck in 2010, is it not? Based soley on this statistic, one could argue that Aaron Hill's low batting average this year is largely due to bad luck, and he is bound to rebound.

The problem that most people get when analyzing this statistic is what I refer to as the "Gambler's Falacy." If you assume that Aaron Hill has had bad luck to this point, then who's not to say that everything will average out and at the end of the year, his BABIP will be somewhere around his career average? In order for Hill's 2010 BABIP to finish close to his career BABIP, he would have to hit at a rediculously high BABIP for the rest of the season to make up for the low BABIP he's had to this point. You simply can't expect that, and it's called the "Gambler's Falacy." You can, however, safely guess that he will hit somewhere around his career BABIP for the remainder of the season.

IPO - Isolated Power

The Sabermetrics Library gives a great description of what this is, but I'll quickly sum it up. Isolated power, is a way of calculating a batters potential for hitting for extra bases. The formula is simple, it is ISO = SLG-AVG, basically taking all the singles out of the slugging percentage leaving behind only the extra base hits. Saberlibrary notes that in small sample sizes (of less than 550 at bats) this statistic is basically useless in predicting future ISO, and should not be used as a frame of reference. Here is an example (all credit to Sabermetrics Library) of a few players ISO numbers from 2009.

Player	2009 ISO
Albert Pujols	.331
Adam Dunn	.257
Ryan Braun	.231
Grady Sizemore	.197
Jimmy Rollins	.173
Derek Jeter	.131
Elvis Andrus	.106
Luis Castillo	.043

WAR - Wins Above Replacement

WAR exactly a statistic commonly used in baseball, as it doesn't necessarily tell you their value as a fantasy player, rather it tells you their value to their team. It puts a tangible number to the question "What if this player were injured, how much value does this team lose?" If you had to use one statistic, and only one, to evaluate a players value, WAR is the statistic you want. WAR is about as all-inclusive as statistics get. Of course, it's not the end-all be-all of statistics or it would be more widely used, but it is a powerful tool.

The problem with WAR, is that it doesn't necessarily predict future value. In fact, it doesn't at all. WAR tells you how much value the player has been worth until this point, offensively and defensively, and gives you a number of wins as the value. The higher the WAR the better.

As far as Fantasy Baseball is concerned, this is one advanced stat that probably won't help you very much. I can, however, think of a situation where it might. If your WAR is negative, that means that your team is better off using a minor leaguer or guy off the bench in rather than you. So if your Adam Lind, and your WAR is a league low -1.0 (which is actually is this season), you might lose some playing time, and your fantasy owners might consider dropping you.

FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching

Again, I don't feel I can explain this any better than Sabermetrics Library, as their description is spot on.

Basically, research has proven that their isn't a constant average of balls hit in play that are recorded for outs. It varies from year to year and changes constantly. FIP factors the things the pitcher can control, namely walks, strikeouts and homeruns, and puts it into a fancy equation and scales down so it's similar to ERA. The equation is below.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP+constant
Again, the constant (generally around 3.2 and is calcuated by subtracting League-average-FIP from League-average-ERA) is to scale it down to an ERA-type scale, mostly for ease of use. The most imporant use of FIP is it's predictive power. Research by Tom Tango has shown that FIP is the best known predictor for ERA the following season. That's a pretty powerful tool, if you know how to use it.

There is your short crash course in advanced Fantasy statistics. Any further questions should be emailed to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com and I can post on them later.