Showing posts with label Joel Hanrahan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joel Hanrahan. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

MRI: Maximizing Relief Innings

With all the wealth of information available to you and your opponents, it's becoming ever increasingly difficult to gain an edge. Strategy has become an extremely important part of the game, and it's highly unlikely that many leagues are won on draft day these days.

MRI stands for Maximizing Relief Innings. The point of this strategy is to maximize innings pitched by elite set-up men, to gain some extra points when you've reached your Games Started limit. The point is to have a couple of these guys on your roster all season, and when you get to the Games Started limit, to fill your pitching staff when them.

The pro's of this strategy far outweigh the con's. You only should have elite guys, with great strikeout rates, and low ERA's and WHIP's. These same guys are often next in line for closer roles, so owning them has an even higher added bonus. Below I'll outline some of the elite guys you should target, and consequently, the guys that next season may be in a closer role.

Hong Chih Kuo, Dodgers

Being the primary set-up man for Broxton isn't the best situation to be in for an aspiring closer. However, Kuo has been absolutely amazing this season, even earning an All Star spot out of the bullpen.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Hong-Chih Kuo3638.248330.930.83

Those are solid stats by any means, and currently Kuo is the 29th ranked relief pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater, which tells you he should be owned in just about every format available.

If your league tracks Holds, he has even more value. As one of the elite set-up men in the league, Kuo has recorded 16 Holds this season, and 47 in his short career.

Daniel Bard, Red Sox

Another elite set-up man blocked by an elite closer. If it wasn't for Jonathan Papelbon, Bard may already be the Sox closer, and it remains to be seen if the Sox will keep Papelbon around for another season or move on to Bard, who seems ready to take over the closer role. He's only 25, with 2 seasons of big league ball under his belt, but the kid throws gas, consistently in the upper 90s.

In the very lease, Bard should close for some team in the near future, but for now, still owns quite a bit of value. His stats so far this season:

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Daniel Bard5152.054131.900.87

Joel Hanrahan, Pirates

He has since been given (at least) a share of the closer role, with the departure of Octavio Dotel, however even before that he had value. Hanrahan's stats on the year aren't all that impressive, however if you throw out the infamous 20-run game against Milwaukee, his stats look like this for the season.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Joel Hanrahan5048.168213.180.99

The ERA isn't great, but it certainly won't hurt you. And the strikeout rate is phenominal, and mainly the reason you want him. The added bonus of future save chances is a huge plus also.

Evan Meek, Pirates

The other half of the dynamic Pirates set-up duo. Meek has arguably had the better season, however Hanrahan will likely get more save chances based purely on the fact that he's had previous save experience. The strikeout rate isn't quite that of an elite set-up guy, but the ERA and WHIP are his main attractions.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Evan Meek5162.153411.440.91

Luke Gregerson, Padres

Gregerson has had a phenominal sophomore season with the Friars, posting a whip that almost unheard of for someone who isn't considered the premier closer in the league. In fact, he's not even next in line to get the closer role, as Mike Adams would likely get the all if Heath Bell was ever traded.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Luke Gregerson5353.066312.550.70

With the Padres bullpen being as good as it is this season, Gregerson has risen to near the top of the pack with his excellent WHIP and strikeout rate.

Mike Adams, Padres

Arguably more experienced than Gregerson, and likely higher in the pecking order, Adams has done enough to get his name on this list of elite set-up guys. He spent a while on the DL, otherwise his numbers might be better, but he has still more than held his own.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Mike Adams4342.147202.130.94

With Heath Bell being as solid a closer as he is, it would be hard for Adams to jump him barring any injury or trade, however the future is bright for this aspiring closer, who's posted 47 Holds in the last 3 seasons combine.

Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay

Benoit probably is one of the most underrated relief guys in the league. He's never been an elite pitcher in his career, which probably has aided in people passing his name over. However, he has been extremely solid for the Rays this season, bridging the gap from starter to Rafael Soriano to perfection. You might consider adding him, despite his recent struggles.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Joaquin Benoit4240.254011.330.64

It might be easy to say "he's gotten lucky this far, that's why his ERA is so low." However, it's hard not to believe this is real, when Benoit posts as low a WHIP as he has over 40+ innings, consistently.

J.J. Putz, White Sox

Putz is a guy many other teams were scouting as potential closers at the trade deadline, however with the White Sox in the heat of a penant race, they elected to hold onto him for the stretch run. It's worked out to their advantage so far.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
J.J. Putz4441.146531.960.85

Matt Thornton, White Sox

The White Sox, along with the Pirates and Padres, have one of the best bullpens in the league. Thornton is a big reason why that is so. He got nominated to his first All Star game this season, and his numbers certainly support why. He's been as dominant as any left handed reliever this season, and could be put into more high pressure situations going forward.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Matt Thorton4744.060352.251.07

Frank Francisco, Rangers

This is a guy who gets overlooked because he started the season as a closer and has since lost it. However, since losing the closer role and taking over a set-up role, he's regained his form and performed very well. His stats since losing the closer role:

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Frank Francisco3232.240202.761.04

Certainly not elite, but good stats none-the-less. He's a good source of cheap strikeouts with a low risk for ERA and WHIP. He's a valuable asset, and if anything were to happen to Neftali Feliz, he would be the closer the Rangers need.

Dark Horses

The following two guys haven't been in the big leagues very long, but they have promising futures and in deeper keeper leauges deserve looks as their futures as closers isn't a matter of if, rather a matter of when.

Ernesto Frieri, Padres

We told you the Padres bullpen was elite, didn't we? Frieri was leading the PCL in Saves with 17 at the time of his original promotion, so he has closer experience and looks to be the closer of the future for the Padres (or another team). In his short stint in the bigs this season, Frieri has posted staggering numbers.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
Ernesto Frieri119.218000.930.72

Can you imagine if he could keep that up for an entire season? 100+ K's is unheard of for all but the most elite closers. He will likely stick with the team, but at the very least be back with the September call-ups.

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

This guy has only been pitching for about a full season, as he was converted from a catcher in 2009. Since then, he's posted monster numbers in split seasons with the Dodgers High A and AA affiliates, shown by his stats below.

GIPKWSVERAWHIP
A+/AA2227.050481.671.14
MLB66.09000.000.83

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Starting Lineup: Pitchers

Playing a little catch-up here. With the last (ironically, also the first) Starting Lineup post running a bit long, I decided to break it into Position Players and Pitchers. Below is the Pitchers portion of the Starting Lineup.

Bullpen Joel Hanrahan, Frank Fransisco, Jose Valverde, Brandon League

Joel Hanrahan (pictured right) just had a huge hike in his fantasy value. With the trade of Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers, the Pirates were left closer-less. Of their primary options, Hanrahan and Evan Meek, Hanrahan is the more experience pitcher (with some closer experience when he was with the Nationals) and should get the majority of the save opportunities for the remainder of the season. While Meek has arguably had the better year, in the last two months Hanrahan has been absolutely dominant on the mound posting a 1.44 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with 30 K's, 1 Win (no losses) and 8 Holds in 25.0 innings pitched during the months of June and July.

Frank Fransico is a guy who started the year as the Rangers closer, but due to struggles was removed and has since taken over a set-up role, forcing many owners to dropp him. However, because of his high strikeout rate, high pressure situations and previous closer experience, he still has value in many leagues. Since losing his closer role, Fransisco has posted a 3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP (little high), 52 K's, 5 Wins and 14 Holds in 34.2 innings pitched. Most of his value is in vulture wins and his high strikeout rate, and there is no question that he would take over the closer role if anything were to happen to Neftali Feliz.

Jose Valverde has been struggling lately. He's given up 7 earned runs in his last 3.1 IP, and 9 earned runs in his last 7 IP. He started the year very strong, with a sub 1.00 ERA and WHIP for much of the early season. We all expected a regression, but this is kind of shocking. Valverde has made it clear his problems are most likley due to mechanical reasons, and that he is not injured, but one thing is for certain: he doesn't appear to be the dominant closer he once did and caution should be used going forward. The Tigers have no one that could replace him, so he will have to work through his struggles continuing to pitch the 9th inning.

Brandon League's value could be on the rise soon. There are rumors flying that Seattle is trying to deal David Aardsma, and he will likely be placed on waivers at some point to set up a trade with a contending team. If this happens, League would immediately step into the closer role. Even without saves, however, League has had value this season. He's had 14 decisions without starting a single game, with a record of 8-6. 8 wins is rediculous for a set up guy, and to put that into perspective, Felix Hernandez, perenial Cy Young candidate, has only 7 wins on the year.

Starters Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, Travis Wood

Wandy Rodriguez, once left for dead, has been an excellent waiver pick up for many owners in the recent weeks. Going 6-1 in his last 7 starts, he's posted a 1.91 ERA, 0.89 WHIP with 43 K's over that span. He looks like a great option going forward, despite being on a poor Houston team with poor run support. He's a must start against mediocre teams, and a match up play against the elite.

Brandon Morrow is the guy that defines the home/road split. 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home, with a 1-5 record, 6.23 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the road. Such a glaring difference for a guy that by all accounts has nasty stuff and should be a good pitcher down the road. I would attribute luck and match ups to the insane difference in the split, and not so much ball park factors. He is a definite match up play, and borderline owned pitcher in standard 10 team leagues. The only reason you should be cautious is because of his division, he has to face New York, Boston and Tampa Bay quite often, and he shouldn't be started against any of these teams, home or on the road.

Carl Pavano has been the anchor of the Twins pitching staff this season, despite what Fransisco Liriano might say. Pavano likely wasn't drafted in your league, and whoever picked him up has been singing his praises for weeks now. On the season, he's 13-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. With only 83 punch outs, tempter your enthusiasm, as he may be getting lucky lately, but the low ERA and WHIP are legit. He seems to be back to his former self and is a good option going forward.

Mike Pelfrey started the year out strong, with whispers of "Cy Young" centered around his name. After starting out 9-1 with a 2.39 ERA, he was likely owned in every league out there. However, since then he's gone 1-4, posting an ERA over 10 in the month of July. I think this is more of the Mike Pelfrey that you will see from this point forward, and I wouldn't be offended if you dropped him in shallow leagues.

Travis Wood, the guy who got lost in the youth pitching of the Reds, has emerged as a solid option going forward. He's pitching for a great team, and his stats show he's a legit pitcher. Starting the season out his name was behind Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman, but for the moment he's out performing both. While only being 1-1, he has a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 37.2 IP. His 33 strikeouts are coming at a decent clip, and I wouldn't consider him more than a spot start at this point. Speaking of spot starts, Wood is pitching at Pittsburgh, who has scored the second least runs in the league (only scoring more than lowly Seattle).

That raps up the first Starting Lineup. In the future, I likely won't write so much about each player, or write about less players all together, but I think this idea turned out ok.