Carlos Gonzalez, currently the 5th ranked overall player and 3rd ranked outfielder according to ESPN's Player Rater, seemingly came out of nowhere this season. Many fantasy owners didn't have a clue who he was on draft day, and those that did are rubbing it in their faces. Lets take a look at how CarGo got to where he is today, as one of the premier outfielders in the league.
Gonzalez has been traded for some pretty big names in his career, and has quietly been considered one of the best prospects in baseball for quite sometime. In 2007, Gonzalez was traded along with Brett Anderson and Chris Carter (among other) to Oakland for Dan Haren. Then, in 2008 he was traded with Houston Street and Greg Smith to Colorado for Matt Holliday.
It's not that the potential wasn't there, it was that Gonzalez never really showed that potential in the minors. In 7 seasons in the minors, Gonzalez batted .290 with only 88 homeruns. Not that those numbers are bad, they just don't scream "elite prospect." The disappointment was furthered following an 85 came callup with the Athletics in which Gonzalez batted .242 with only 4 homeruns and 4 stolen bases. Thankfully, the Rockies must have seen something the rest of us missed.
In 2009, Gonzelez got his first real crack at the majors, and he didn't disappoint. In 89 games, CarGo posted .284/.353/.525 with 13 homeruns (however only 29 RBI's batting mostly out of the leadoff spot), 53 runs scored and 16 stolen bases in 20 tries. He showed flashes of the player experts once thought he would be, and showed signs of a bright future.
Still, even with his major progress last season, I don't think many people saw this type of explosion coming. Through 97 games in 2010, Gonzalez has 24 homeruns, 74 RBI's and 72 runs scored, 16 stolen bases in 21 tries, and posting .320/.349/.563. He's on pace for a 35-25 season, which would make him an elite fantasy player when combine with his ability to create RBI's and score runs, not to mention his amazing batting average.
It's hard to predict where he will go from here. He will certainly be considered an elite fantasy player next season, easily going in the top 10 outfields, possibly even the top 5.
The only caution I feel needs to be taken lies in his advanced stats. Gonzalez's career BABIP is a rediculously high .342, and even more rediculous is his 2010 BABIP, sitting at .367. I expect his batting average to drop next season, but the power and speed are legit. He strikes out at a decent clip, but he's very young and has a lot of room for improvement. It will be interesting to see how he responds to pitchers adjusting to him in the future, once someone finally finds a whole in his swing. For now, however, CarGo looks like the single biggest jump in value from 2010 to 2011. People who drafted him in keeper leagues (or traded for him) have to be drooling now.
