Prospect Spotlight: Chris Carter

Chris Carter is the power hitting firstbasemen of the future for the Oakland Athletics, this is common knowledge. What can you expect from him, for the rest of this season and for 2011?

According to Baseball America, Chris Carter was the 28th Ranked Prospect for their Pre-2010 rankings. While that might not seem extremely impressive, 28 is only one spot behind Brett Wallace, and ahead of current Major Leaguers Michael Saunders (Mariners), Wade Davis (Rays), Jason Castro (Astros), Redi Brignac (Rays), Ike Davis (Mets), Dan Hudson (Diamondbacks), Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Mike Leake (Reds), Austin Jackson (Tigers), Drew Storen (Nationals), Andrew Cashner (Cubs), Peter Bourjos (Angels) and Jake Arrieta (Orioles). Thats pretty elite company when it comes to prospects.

According to Baseball America, Carter's best tool is his power, graded a 75 out of a possible 80. Thats pretty elite power, and this is shown by his minor league stats over the last few seasons.

Level	G	2B	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Rk-A	82	24	16	64	4	.273	.373	.522
A	126	27	25	93	3	.291	.383	.522
A+	137	32	39	104	4	.259	.361	.569
AA-AAA	138	43	28	115	13	.329	.422	.570
AAA	113	29	27	89	1	.262	.368	.531

Even if it is High-A ball, 39 homers is an impressive season. Carters batting average seems to fluctuate each season, and his career mark is only at .285. He strikes out a decent clip, whiffing on 676 of 2471 at bats, good for a 27% whiff-rate. He also has roughly a 2:1 K:BB ratio.

In the future, Carter likely will be eligible at 1B and OF, which increases his value. He will hit for some power in his career, but the average might be lacking. I wouldn't count him out as a slow-poke either, shown by his 13 steals for Oaklands AA affiliate. He never will have elite speed, but I think 10 steals in a season is possible at some point in his career. Remember the guy is only 23 years old.

What can you expect from him in the future? I think his skill set is a lot like that of Marlin Mike Stanton, in that he will hit for power, has the potential to drive in a lot of runs, but his average might turn a lot of people off. Many young players face a harsh adjustment period when they reach the majors, and their batting averages drop. Below are my predictions for 2011 if Carter was to play a full season.

G	2B	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
135	38	21	85	5	.260	.350	.520

I feel this is a realistic expectation, but his upside tells me he could do much better. He is a good keeper candidate if you can get him for extremely cheap, but I would draft him with caution next season.

Dark Horses for 2011

With the season quickly winding down, many teams are shifting their focus on preparing for next season. Who should you invest in? I feel that most of the guys that you want to keep are obvious, such as Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. But what about the guys that aren't elite fantasy players, but still worthy of keeper status? What about the guys you took a flyer on and only bid $1? If your not in a keeper league, who are the guys you should target in your draft next season?

Below are some bargains that could make or break your season in 2011. The dollar value was the "projected" 2010 draft day value in an auction style draft, according to ESPN's Draft Kit. If you don't have the option to keep these guys, I would still consider drafting them for cheap.

Brandon Morrow $1 ($2 AL-only)

If you took a flyer on him and only spent $1, you are definitely keeping this 26-year old strikeout master. So far in 2010, he has 151 in 127.1 innings pitched.

Throw out Morrow's amazing 17-strikeout 1-hitter, because if thats why you want to keep him, then you shouldn't be playing competitive fantasy baseball. Morrow has had an incredible strike-out rate all season long, with a respectable WHIP. His major problem is his high ERA, which one could argue is mostly attributed to having to play Boston and New York with frequent regularity.

His home and road splits are startling. 2.83 ERA (7-1 record) at home, but as soon as he leaves the Rogers Centre, the hits start piling up and so does his ERA, posting a 6.44 ERA on the road. There is no explaination for this, except maybe that in his young age, he still get's the gitters on the road.

If I had to bet, I would say he is a strong candidate for a great season next year. The type of season that Morrow is having, hints at future greatness. He is a guy that I would definitely target in drafts next season, if you weren't lucky enough to get him for cheap this season. Sure, it's possible that his 4.45 ERA is actually what it's supposed to be, but for $1, you can afford to take that risk.

Brandon Webb $2 ($10 NL-only)

If were talking dark horses for 2011, how could you not mention Brandon Webb. One upon a time, he was an elite pitcher in the league, but has missed nearly two full seasons because of injuries. Most people have forgotten about him, and some think his career might be over. If your only spending $2, I feel he is definitely worth the risk, and if he doesn't work out, you can drop him and lose minimal draft day value.

Jose Lopez $10 ($16 AL-only)

Boy is he having a down year, so it's risky to keep him at the value you got him this season. I do feel strongly he can turn it around, no matter what team he is on (the Mariners feel that he won't be back in 2011 when his contract expires). If you can get him cheap in the draft, his ceiling is very high. At his best, he's a top 2B/3B in the league, but at his worst, he's not even ownable in a 10-team league.

Year	G	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OPS
2006	151	603	78	170	28	8	10	79	26	80	5	.282	.724
2007	149	524	58	132	17	2	11	62	20	64	2	.252	.639
2008	159	644	80	191	41	1	17	89	27	67	6	.297	.765
2009	153	613	69	167	42	0	25	96	24	69	3	.272	.766
2010	107	425	33	102	21	0	6	45	17	48	3	.240	.603

It's no secret Lopez's numbers are down this season compared to his previous numbers. The average is as low as it's been since his 57 game stint with Seattle in 2004, and the OPS is lower than it's ever been.

The problem is that Lopez peripherals suggest this isn't exactly the product of bad luck. Although his BABIP is at it's lowest point since 2004, it's only .024 points lower than his career average, and .013 points lower than last season. Thats not exactly alarming data, as the nature of statistics allows for fluctuations like this without any reasoning behind it.

Also, Lopez's line-drive percentage (LD%) is nearly identicaly to his 2009 number as well as his career number, so thats certainly not the problem. His strikeout rate (K%) is actually lower than his career average, and identical to last season. His walk rate is the same as his career average, so he has the same approach at the plate as previous seasons.

Considering that all of those stats are exactly the same, it's possible that Lopez has lost a step or two, and also lost some power. His ISO has dropped 100 points from last season, and his steals are down. It's looking more and more like this is the problem, however he's only 26 years old, so how does that happen? It's possible that Lopez is just tired, or maybe there is a lingering injury. Whatever it is, I expect him to work on it in the off season, and correct those problems, leading to a strong comeback season in 2011.

Carlos Santana $1 ($6 AL-only)

If you drafted Carlos Santana in a keeper league, how smart are you feeling right now? Even though this season is lost, the damage looks like it's not as bad as it could have been, and Santana theoretically should make a full recovery and return to form next season.

Santana has shown in his short time in the bigs, that he can hit big league pitching, and he is already one of the Indians best and most feared pitchers.

I think that Santana has more value than other rookie catchers next season, including Buster Posey and J.P. Arencibia. He could easily be the All Star representative for the Indians next season, and is the base to that franchises future. He has the potential to be a top 3 Fantasy Catcher, and I would do whatever it takes to get him on draft day.

I can write more on some other guys in the future, so send in some emails to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com if you have any suggestions for more Dark Horses.

MRI: Maximizing Relief Innings

With all the wealth of information available to you and your opponents, it's becoming ever increasingly difficult to gain an edge. Strategy has become an extremely important part of the game, and it's highly unlikely that many leagues are won on draft day these days.

MRI stands for Maximizing Relief Innings. The point of this strategy is to maximize innings pitched by elite set-up men, to gain some extra points when you've reached your Games Started limit. The point is to have a couple of these guys on your roster all season, and when you get to the Games Started limit, to fill your pitching staff when them.

The pro's of this strategy far outweigh the con's. You only should have elite guys, with great strikeout rates, and low ERA's and WHIP's. These same guys are often next in line for closer roles, so owning them has an even higher added bonus. Below I'll outline some of the elite guys you should target, and consequently, the guys that next season may be in a closer role.

Hong Chih Kuo, Dodgers

Being the primary set-up man for Broxton isn't the best situation to be in for an aspiring closer. However, Kuo has been absolutely amazing this season, even earning an All Star spot out of the bullpen.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Hong-Chih Kuo	36	38.2	48	3	3	0.93	0.83

Those are solid stats by any means, and currently Kuo is the 29th ranked relief pitcher on ESPN's Player Rater, which tells you he should be owned in just about every format available.

If your league tracks Holds, he has even more value. As one of the elite set-up men in the league, Kuo has recorded 16 Holds this season, and 47 in his short career.

Daniel Bard, Red Sox

Another elite set-up man blocked by an elite closer. If it wasn't for Jonathan Papelbon, Bard may already be the Sox closer, and it remains to be seen if the Sox will keep Papelbon around for another season or move on to Bard, who seems ready to take over the closer role. He's only 25, with 2 seasons of big league ball under his belt, but the kid throws gas, consistently in the upper 90s.

In the very lease, Bard should close for some team in the near future, but for now, still owns quite a bit of value. His stats so far this season:

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Daniel Bard	51	52.0	54	1	3	1.90	0.87

Joel Hanrahan, Pirates

He has since been given (at least) a share of the closer role, with the departure of Octavio Dotel, however even before that he had value. Hanrahan's stats on the year aren't all that impressive, however if you throw out the infamous 20-run game against Milwaukee, his stats look like this for the season.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Joel Hanrahan	50	48.1	68	2	1	3.18	0.99

The ERA isn't great, but it certainly won't hurt you. And the strikeout rate is phenominal, and mainly the reason you want him. The added bonus of future save chances is a huge plus also.

Evan Meek, Pirates

The other half of the dynamic Pirates set-up duo. Meek has arguably had the better season, however Hanrahan will likely get more save chances based purely on the fact that he's had previous save experience. The strikeout rate isn't quite that of an elite set-up guy, but the ERA and WHIP are his main attractions.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Evan Meek	51	62.1	53	4	1	1.44	0.91

Luke Gregerson, Padres

Gregerson has had a phenominal sophomore season with the Friars, posting a whip that almost unheard of for someone who isn't considered the premier closer in the league. In fact, he's not even next in line to get the closer role, as Mike Adams would likely get the all if Heath Bell was ever traded.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Luke Gregerson	53	53.0	66	3	1	2.55	0.70

With the Padres bullpen being as good as it is this season, Gregerson has risen to near the top of the pack with his excellent WHIP and strikeout rate.

Mike Adams, Padres

Arguably more experienced than Gregerson, and likely higher in the pecking order, Adams has done enough to get his name on this list of elite set-up guys. He spent a while on the DL, otherwise his numbers might be better, but he has still more than held his own.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Mike Adams	43	42.1	47	2	0	2.13	0.94

With Heath Bell being as solid a closer as he is, it would be hard for Adams to jump him barring any injury or trade, however the future is bright for this aspiring closer, who's posted 47 Holds in the last 3 seasons combine.

Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay

Benoit probably is one of the most underrated relief guys in the league. He's never been an elite pitcher in his career, which probably has aided in people passing his name over. However, he has been extremely solid for the Rays this season, bridging the gap from starter to Rafael Soriano to perfection. You might consider adding him, despite his recent struggles.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Joaquin Benoit	42	40.2	54	0	1	1.33	0.64

It might be easy to say "he's gotten lucky this far, that's why his ERA is so low." However, it's hard not to believe this is real, when Benoit posts as low a WHIP as he has over 40+ innings, consistently.

J.J. Putz, White Sox

Putz is a guy many other teams were scouting as potential closers at the trade deadline, however with the White Sox in the heat of a penant race, they elected to hold onto him for the stretch run. It's worked out to their advantage so far.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
J.J. Putz	44	41.1	46	5	3	1.96	0.85

Matt Thornton, White Sox

The White Sox, along with the Pirates and Padres, have one of the best bullpens in the league. Thornton is a big reason why that is so. He got nominated to his first All Star game this season, and his numbers certainly support why. He's been as dominant as any left handed reliever this season, and could be put into more high pressure situations going forward.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Matt Thorton	47	44.0	60	3	5	2.25	1.07

Frank Francisco, Rangers

This is a guy who gets overlooked because he started the season as a closer and has since lost it. However, since losing the closer role and taking over a set-up role, he's regained his form and performed very well. His stats since losing the closer role:

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Frank Francisco	32	32.2	40	2	0	2.76	1.04

Certainly not elite, but good stats none-the-less. He's a good source of cheap strikeouts with a low risk for ERA and WHIP. He's a valuable asset, and if anything were to happen to Neftali Feliz, he would be the closer the Rangers need.

Dark Horses

The following two guys haven't been in the big leagues very long, but they have promising futures and in deeper keeper leauges deserve looks as their futures as closers isn't a matter of if, rather a matter of when.

Ernesto Frieri, Padres

We told you the Padres bullpen was elite, didn't we? Frieri was leading the PCL in Saves with 17 at the time of his original promotion, so he has closer experience and looks to be the closer of the future for the Padres (or another team). In his short stint in the bigs this season, Frieri has posted staggering numbers.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Ernesto Frieri	11	9.2	18	0	0	0.93	0.72

Can you imagine if he could keep that up for an entire season? 100+ K's is unheard of for all but the most elite closers. He will likely stick with the team, but at the very least be back with the September call-ups.

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers

This guy has only been pitching for about a full season, as he was converted from a catcher in 2009. Since then, he's posted monster numbers in split seasons with the Dodgers High A and AA affiliates, shown by his stats below.

	G	IP	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
A+/AA	22	27.0	50	4	8	1.67	1.14
MLB	6	6.0	9	0	0	0.00	0.83

Starting Lineup: Position Players 8/9/2010

Every week, we go over one player at each position and give some recent news and predictions about them. Last weeks Starting Lineup can be found here.

Catcher J.P. Arencibia

It's quite possible that my article last week cursed a few players, namely last weeks featured catcher, Carlos Santana. Only a few days after my post raving about Santana, he goes down with a serious knee injury that required season-ending surgery.

This week, we'll spotlight J.P. Arencibia. I posted about his background but it doesn't appear many people got the memo. If you would have taken my advice and picked him up, you would have gotten the 4-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI stat line that he posted in his debut. Now, not even I could have predicted something that good, but we'll pretend I did.

Going forward, you might want to take caution with him. He will get the majority of the starts until John Buck returns from injury (sitting every 3rd game), that much is clear. What's not clear is what will happen to Arencibia when Buck actually does return. It's likely he will go back to Vegas, so he cal play every day rather than wasting his talent on the bench. I feel he could be Toronto's starting catcher as early as opening day 2011, and his value just skyrocketted in keeper leagues.

1B Justin Morneau

He came out of the gates absolutely on fire in 2010, becoming one of the most valuable first basemen in all of fantasy baseball. It was common knowledge he's had previous issues with back problems, but I don't think anyone was worried about a concussion. Thats exactly what happened, and the problem with concussions, is that we never have a definite time table of recovery.

I think that Morneau will be back in 2-3 weeks, but even when he comes back he might get a rest day rather frequently to aid in the long term recovery. Concussion symptoms can linger for months after the initial injury (Aaron Hill missed an entire season because of one).

Because of this, I feel that unless you're in a keeper league, you should try to sell on Morneau now. You will get much less value out of him then you expect given the stats he's produced this season. Obviously, don't be so quick to pull the trigger in a keeper league, but I would take whatever I could get for him in a yearly league.

2B Orlando Hudson

Last weeks featured second basemen, also went down with an injury. Thankfully for the Twins, Orlando Hudson was ready to come off the DL and resume his regular play at 2B. Great news for his owners, as the Twins are in the heat of a penant race and need all the help they can get.

Hudson can be a good source of runs, while also posting a decent average. Only expect home runs and stolen bases sporadically, and don't count on a ton of RBI's. His value mostly lies in batting in front of Joe Mauer. He is a threat to score a run every single time he gets on base.

3B Chone Figgins

Figgins is another guy that many teams have given up on too early. He is a premier source of steals, and thats about it. Most owners issues with Figgins lie in his inability to hit for a decent average. However, he's already quickly on the way to raising his average, hitting .481 in 7 August games so far. Expect a strong finish out of Figgins, who is on pace for about 15 more steals.

SS Juan Uribe

This is a guy who is owned in way too many leagues. Uribe is owned in 91.1% of standard ESPN leagues, something that really confuses me. He's probably one of the most unpredictable and sporadic hitters in the game today. He'll hit .400 for a week and launch 2 homeruns, and his ownership will skyrocket, then he'll hit .225 for 2 weeks and slowly get dropped. Back and forth back and forth.

Why should you drop him though? Because, Uribe is trending in the wrong direction. The chart below shows Uribe's AVG, OBP and SLG per month (non-cumulative). See if you can spot the trend.

Thats pretty alarming data, and should send up a red flag if you happen to be owning him. He might be a strong sell high candidate, but I doubt anyone will be buying him at this point.

OF Domonic Brown, Carlos Gonzalez, B.J. Upton

When Domonic Brown was called up, your league likely had an immediate bidding war over who was going to own him. Probably, whoever ended up winning the bidding war, paid too much. It's not that Brown isn't an elite prospect, it's that he won't get the opportunity just yet. As soon as Shane Victorino comes back from injury, Brown will lose playing time, and possibly be sent back to AAA. He will likely be an every day starter in 2011, replacing Jason Werth, but until then I don't think he'll have the massive impact owners initially assumed he would.

How could I write this column and not mention Carlos Gonzalez? Over the last week, CarGo vaulted himself to #1 on ESPN's Player Rater, making him the most valuable Fantasy player, overall, this season. An amazing run this kid is having. All I can say is, enjoy the ride if you have him, and do whatever you have to do to own him for the future. This kid is special, and while he might experience a slight drop in stats next season, the power/speed combo threat he owns is dangerous.

B.J. Upton, yet another name that owners have given up on this season. His terrible batting average and lack of all around production was likely the culprit. However, he playing much better lately, stealing 5 bases and launching 2 home runs in the last 2 weeks. The average still isn't there, but you can't complain about the power and speed production.

That raps up this week. If you would like us to write about a specific player, send us an email at sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com.

Preliminary 2011 Catcher Rankings

It's never too early to think about next season, especially in keeper leagues. Catcher has been, in recent years, a hit or miss position. You either get one of the elite catchers, or you wait and cross your fingers. In keeper leagues, it's good to always be thinking about the future.

1. Joe Mauer, Twins

Wouldn't my credibility go out the door if I didn't put Mauer 1st? He's a 3 time batting champ, and 2009 MVP. He's a career .326 hitter who hasn't hit below .293 for a season in his Major League career. The power is finally starting to come around (although took a hit in 2010), the RBI's have been steadily increasing. He should be the top ranked catcher on every list out there.

2. Brian McCann, Braves

This is the safe bet. Sure, you could go with any number of guys in this spot, but McCann consistently produces and rarely disappoints. He's having a bit of a down year in 2010, but I expect him to rebound next season.

3. Matt Wieters, Baltimore

Everybody knows he's having a down year in 2010, thats common knowlegde. This should actually drive his price down next season and you could get him cheaper if you beleive he's worht the risk. Wieters was once considered an elite prospect, one along the lines of "Joe Mauer" type skills. He has all the potential in the world, just needs to work on adjusting to big league pitchers as they adjust to his weaknesses.

4. Victor Martinez, Red Sox

This list is looking a lot like last seasons rankings so far. You can't take Martinez's 2010 numbers too seriously, as he was injured for a large portion of the season. He will play Catcher and 1B, and get regular playing time. His career batting average stands at .298, and maybe has the best power potential of any catcher. He will be 32 years old, however, and you have to start thinking about the wear and tear of the catcher position starting to get to him.

5. Buster Posey, Giants

Finally, a new comer to the list that woulnd't have been here a year earlier. Posey has impressed in his short campaign this season as the Giants Catcher and part time firstbasemen. The Giants must think he's a sure thing, becuase they traded away veteran catcher Benji Molina. You can expect a small regression, as he's hitting well over his head so far in 2010, but the bat is legit.

6. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

With Chris Snyder gone, Montero will get all the playing time at catcher. In regular duty, he has shown flashes of an elite catcher, but this is about as high as I would feel comfortable ranking him.

7. Mike Napoli, Angels

Napolis is a tough guy to read. His power is legit, and it's definitely his best asset. The problem is, he's not going to score a ton of runs, and his average might sting a little. He is never a safe bet to get constant playing time either, as Mike Scioscia has shown in the past he will play less talented catchers over Napoli if he struggles.

8. Carlos Santana, Indians

Here's hoping his knee surgery goes well, and his rehab is fast and effective. This kid could be top 5 given the right opportunities, but he's in a bad Cleveland lineup with little protection as he is quite possibly the Indians best hitter. I'm being conservative with this ranking because of the knee, but he has the potential to be great.

9. Geovany Soto, Cubs

Another guy with a down year that I feel will probably bounce back. He was an allstar as a rookie, and deservingly so. He has the skill set, he just needs to impliment it.

10. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics

Suzuki is a guy many had pegged as a sleeper going into 2010, but injuries and generally average play has quited those voices. He has the potential, but I just don't like the ballpark or lineup he's in, as he doesn't have enough in the tank to do it all himself.

11. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays

Call me crazy, but this guy looks great. I can't imagine he'll play more than 110 games next season at the big leagues (if that), but the sky is the limit with this kid. He hit 31 homeruns in AAA this season before being called up, leading all of professional baseball in that category. An amazing talent this kid is, but we'll have to see how he responds to major league pitching before we declare him a Top 10 catcher.

12. Russell Martin, Dodgers

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Martin, once considered an elite catcher for his power and speed combo, has definitely lost a step, which is concerning because he's only 27 years old. His value has bottomed out, and he might be a nice sleeper pick if your willing to take the risk of a complete bust.

13. Jorge Posada, Yankees

This guy just doesn't seem to know when to quit. He's getting up their in years (he'll be 39 next season) and at some point his age will catch up with him, and the Yankees will move on to Jesus Montero. I don't expect Posada to lose a ton of playing time next season, but he could lose a significant chunk. Let's not forget that he has been getting injured more regularly in the past couple seasons, and he certainly wont be healthy for the entire 2011 season either.

14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates

This is a tough call, because now with the addition of Chris Snyder and Jeff Clement finally healthy, the catcher situation in Pittsburgh is in flux. I think Doumit is the guy, and Clement will play first, but nothing is a given in Pitt next season.

15. Miguel Olivo, Rockies

It's hard to beleive that for the better part of 2010 he was the top fantasy catcher. No one saw it coming, and no one will predict it again. He is an average catcher in a good situation, and nothing more.

16. Yadier Molina, Cardinals

This is a guy who is constantly overrated in a Fantasy sense. He's a great defensive catcher, and he's in a great lineup, but just take a look at his stats and tell me why is is drafted in the Top 10 catchers? This is about as high as I would rank him, and in most leagues you want nothing to do with him.

17. Tyler Flowers, White Sox

A definite sleeper pick here, as there is no guarantee of playing time, but he is the White Sox catcher of the future with A.J. Pierzynksi getting up there in years. He has the skill set, but he's strugged in AAA in 2010.

18. Ronny Paulino, Marlins

A shot in the dark, so to speak. He has shown short flashes of being a solid fantasy catcher, but nothing hints at long term production. You shouldn't want anything to do with him.

19. Taylor Teagarden, Rangers

With all the catchers they have in Texas, it's hard to see one getting a significant amount of playing time. Benji Molina could very well be in this spot or higher, but he's getting old and running out of talent.

20. Nick Hundley, Padres

For the last catcher on this list, I could have done much worse. He hasn't been terrible, and I've seen him owned in a 12-team league for short periods of time, however avoid if at all possible.

That does it for my early-August Preliminary Catcher Rankings. Expect a more detailed and updated list in the off-season. Any feedback is appreciated.

Crash course in Advanced Fantasy Statistics

If you ever took an advanced statistics course in college, the above image should make you shudder, I know it does that to me.

With all the wealth of information out there today, how is it possible to know something about a players fantasy value that every other person in your league doesn't know? It's getting increasingly difficult to gain an edge these days over your fellow league mates. With this post, I'll give a short (or long, depending on which way you look at it) crash course in some advanced statistics that will probably help you in the long run.

What are advanced statistics? You may have heard of BABIP among others, but what about ISO or WAR? What about FIP? Confused yet? If so, don't worry. Over the course of this post you should gain a basic understanding of what these statistics are and how to use them to your advantage.

BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play

Lets start with an easy one. What you see is what you get. This is basically a players average of balls hit into the field of play. The simplest way to calculate this is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO). Basically you are taking strikeouts and homeruns out of a players average and calculating what percentage of the balls hit into play landed safely.

The simplest way to use BABIP, is to analyze "luck." If you think about it, of every single ball a player hits into the field of play, there should be a single constant percentage that land safely for hits. This population mean is subject to fluctuating standard deviations, and is subject to change itself (if the player changes their swing or approach at the plate) but all in all it should be fairly simple to predict what percentage of balls a guy hits in play will land safe, and what percent will be recorded as outs. This is a useful statistic if you know how to analyze trends. It's really simple, actually. The best and easiest example is Aaron Hill. Take a look at the table below.

Year	BABIP
2005	.299
2006	.319
2007	.324
2008	.301
2009	.288
2010	.202
Career	.294

Without knowing anything about BABIP, you should be able to tell something is going wrong in 2010. Now, combine that with the simple fact that I just told you, that BABIP is commonly used to measure "luck." It is obvious to assume that Aaron Hill is experiencing a bit of bad luck in 2010, is it not? Based soley on this statistic, one could argue that Aaron Hill's low batting average this year is largely due to bad luck, and he is bound to rebound.

The problem that most people get when analyzing this statistic is what I refer to as the "Gambler's Falacy." If you assume that Aaron Hill has had bad luck to this point, then who's not to say that everything will average out and at the end of the year, his BABIP will be somewhere around his career average? In order for Hill's 2010 BABIP to finish close to his career BABIP, he would have to hit at a rediculously high BABIP for the rest of the season to make up for the low BABIP he's had to this point. You simply can't expect that, and it's called the "Gambler's Falacy." You can, however, safely guess that he will hit somewhere around his career BABIP for the remainder of the season.

IPO - Isolated Power

The Sabermetrics Library gives a great description of what this is, but I'll quickly sum it up. Isolated power, is a way of calculating a batters potential for hitting for extra bases. The formula is simple, it is ISO = SLG-AVG, basically taking all the singles out of the slugging percentage leaving behind only the extra base hits. Saberlibrary notes that in small sample sizes (of less than 550 at bats) this statistic is basically useless in predicting future ISO, and should not be used as a frame of reference. Here is an example (all credit to Sabermetrics Library) of a few players ISO numbers from 2009.

Player	2009 ISO
Albert Pujols	.331
Adam Dunn	.257
Ryan Braun	.231
Grady Sizemore	.197
Jimmy Rollins	.173
Derek Jeter	.131
Elvis Andrus	.106
Luis Castillo	.043

WAR - Wins Above Replacement

WAR exactly a statistic commonly used in baseball, as it doesn't necessarily tell you their value as a fantasy player, rather it tells you their value to their team. It puts a tangible number to the question "What if this player were injured, how much value does this team lose?" If you had to use one statistic, and only one, to evaluate a players value, WAR is the statistic you want. WAR is about as all-inclusive as statistics get. Of course, it's not the end-all be-all of statistics or it would be more widely used, but it is a powerful tool.

The problem with WAR, is that it doesn't necessarily predict future value. In fact, it doesn't at all. WAR tells you how much value the player has been worth until this point, offensively and defensively, and gives you a number of wins as the value. The higher the WAR the better.

As far as Fantasy Baseball is concerned, this is one advanced stat that probably won't help you very much. I can, however, think of a situation where it might. If your WAR is negative, that means that your team is better off using a minor leaguer or guy off the bench in rather than you. So if your Adam Lind, and your WAR is a league low -1.0 (which is actually is this season), you might lose some playing time, and your fantasy owners might consider dropping you.

FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching

Again, I don't feel I can explain this any better than Sabermetrics Library, as their description is spot on.

Basically, research has proven that their isn't a constant average of balls hit in play that are recorded for outs. It varies from year to year and changes constantly. FIP factors the things the pitcher can control, namely walks, strikeouts and homeruns, and puts it into a fancy equation and scales down so it's similar to ERA. The equation is below.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP+constant
Again, the constant (generally around 3.2 and is calcuated by subtracting League-average-FIP from League-average-ERA) is to scale it down to an ERA-type scale, mostly for ease of use. The most imporant use of FIP is it's predictive power. Research by Tom Tango has shown that FIP is the best known predictor for ERA the following season. That's a pretty powerful tool, if you know how to use it.

There is your short crash course in advanced Fantasy statistics. Any further questions should be emailed to sillyfantasybaseballgame.blog@gmail.com and I can post on them later.

Fantasy Baseball ain't what she used to be

In the last 10 years, Fantasy Baseball has evolved and changed in many ways. Going mainstream is probably the single biggest factor. These days, everybody that plays gets the same information as everybody else. If your league is hosted on ESPN or Yahoo, every member in your league is able to see the same player updates, recent call ups, hot hitters, slumping pitchers, matchups, stats, trends, etc etc. It's nearly impossible to have "advanced knowledge" of players that you can use to your advantage. Fantasy Baseball now has more to do with luck than skill.

This isn't to say the game is trending in the wrong direction. Fantasy Baseball is an industry, and industries make money. Any industry that wants to improve their profits has to improve their product. Fantasy Baseball has adapted to the mainstream feel, and anybody can join a league with their friends or complete strangers.

Unfortunately, with the way things are, many Fantasy Baseball veterans have been turned off, and probably aren't as enthusiastic as they once were. Why bother playing in a league when the teams you are competing with get the exact same information as you via Fantasy Websites, podcasts or blogs. It's very difficult these days to gain the upper hand.

This got me thinking. How can we restore the game to it's former glory, while still hanging on to it's mainstream feel? I have a few suggestions to make the game more fun for vets and newcomers alike.

Out with the Snake Draft, all hail the Auction!

With all of the available player ranking systems there are today, how could one possibly gain an advantage during a draft? In snake drafts, it's often easy to predict rounds a head of time who a team might draft, based strictly on draft order and need. How is that fun? Where is the competition or opportunity to gain an advantage and bragging right?

This is where the Auction comes in. No longer will Albert Pujols and Hanly Ramirez go to the guys who just happen to draw the Aces from the deck. You have to bid on these players, and if you want them bad enough, give up a significant portion of your budget. Sleepers won't get swiped out from under you before you get a chance to draft them, but rather you get a chance to bid $1 on them and see if anyone else has the same feeling as you. You can build your team exactly the way you want it, and the added strategy makes it that much more fun. I have yet to find a person that prefers a Snake Draft to an Auction.

Forget the Waiver Wire, we want FAAB

What is FAAB you ask? FAAB stands for "Free Agent Acquisition Budget." Basically you get some predetermined amount of money for the entire season (typically $100) and you have that money and that money alone to spend on any and all additions to your team from the free agent pool. The league manager also has the option to allow $0 bids as well, which is a great idea in my opinion.

This will completely replace the need for the silly Waiver Wire system. Think of it this way. You're in an AL-only keeper league with the current Waiver Wire system. Dan Haren just got traded to the LA Angels, and you want him bad! But alas, a team that is in last place and basically hasn't been playing all season, has the top Waiver order, and being a keeper league, jumps at the opportunity to take Haren, right out from under you. How is that fair? Shouldn't you be allowed to bid, auction style for this guy? Player goes to the highest bidder, and that player sacrifices that amount of money for the remainder of the season, and likely will miss out on other top name free agents when they enter the pool.

In my opinion, FAAB is the only way to go. It's very annoying when the news that Carlos Santana has gotten called up comes out in the middle of the night, and the guy that can't sleep and is online at 4 am is the lucky guy that gets him. It's frustrating, and unnecessary. FAAB erases this downside, and adds even more strategy to the game.

Keepers, keepers and more keepers!

You need to join a keeper league. In an auction style league, keepers are exponentially more valuable. Let's say last season you got Jason Heyward for $1, and stashed him on your bench. The idea of having him for a small mark up (or in some cases the same price) is amazing! The possibilities are infinite, and this makes for much more competitive leagues.

Keepers leauges also tend to keep you more involved. Example, let's say your in a keeper league, and you just used $5 of your FAAB to snag Carlos Santana the week before he came up. How happy are you after his first month of the season? He's doing rediculously well, and his future is bright. Then Ryan Kalish comes along, and Santana's season is over in an instant. You are genuinely worried about the guy, who plays for a team your not even a fan of. You want to hear that it's not career threatening (and trust me, it looked like it was). When the news comes out that he avoided major damage and is having a relatively safe, albiet season ending, surgery, you breath a little bit easier. You still get him for cheap next year, and assuming he's healthy, he's a steal.

Play with friends who you now wont bail even when they are losing

You need to join an active league. There is nothing more annoying than joining a league with complete strangers and finding that halfway through the season, you're the only one paying attention. What is the fun in that? I would rather finish dead last in a league with active members than finish first in a league with 9 teams that don't play.

If you impliment all the suggestions I just made, even last place teams have incentives to be active in your league on a daily basis. Who knows when the next Drew Storen or Mike Stanton is going to get called up and you could loock him into your lineup for years to come for very cheap.

Fantasy Baseball can be a very fun game when played right, or it can be a boring competition against yourself. Taking the advice from this post will make your fantasy league more fun and enjoyable. Who doesn't like a little trash talking?

Who is this Carlos Gonzalez kid anyways?

Carlos Gonzalez, currently the 5th ranked overall player and 3rd ranked outfielder according to ESPN's Player Rater, seemingly came out of nowhere this season. Many fantasy owners didn't have a clue who he was on draft day, and those that did are rubbing it in their faces. Lets take a look at how CarGo got to where he is today, as one of the premier outfielders in the league.

Gonzalez has been traded for some pretty big names in his career, and has quietly been considered one of the best prospects in baseball for quite sometime. In 2007, Gonzalez was traded along with Brett Anderson and Chris Carter (among other) to Oakland for Dan Haren. Then, in 2008 he was traded with Houston Street and Greg Smith to Colorado for Matt Holliday.

It's not that the potential wasn't there, it was that Gonzalez never really showed that potential in the minors. In 7 seasons in the minors, Gonzalez batted .290 with only 88 homeruns. Not that those numbers are bad, they just don't scream "elite prospect." The disappointment was furthered following an 85 came callup with the Athletics in which Gonzalez batted .242 with only 4 homeruns and 4 stolen bases. Thankfully, the Rockies must have seen something the rest of us missed.

In 2009, Gonzelez got his first real crack at the majors, and he didn't disappoint. In 89 games, CarGo posted .284/.353/.525 with 13 homeruns (however only 29 RBI's batting mostly out of the leadoff spot), 53 runs scored and 16 stolen bases in 20 tries. He showed flashes of the player experts once thought he would be, and showed signs of a bright future.

Still, even with his major progress last season, I don't think many people saw this type of explosion coming. Through 97 games in 2010, Gonzalez has 24 homeruns, 74 RBI's and 72 runs scored, 16 stolen bases in 21 tries, and posting .320/.349/.563. He's on pace for a 35-25 season, which would make him an elite fantasy player when combine with his ability to create RBI's and score runs, not to mention his amazing batting average.

It's hard to predict where he will go from here. He will certainly be considered an elite fantasy player next season, easily going in the top 10 outfields, possibly even the top 5.

The only caution I feel needs to be taken lies in his advanced stats. Gonzalez's career BABIP is a rediculously high .342, and even more rediculous is his 2010 BABIP, sitting at .367. I expect his batting average to drop next season, but the power and speed are legit. He strikes out at a decent clip, but he's very young and has a lot of room for improvement. It will be interesting to see how he responds to pitchers adjusting to him in the future, once someone finally finds a whole in his swing. For now, however, CarGo looks like the single biggest jump in value from 2010 to 2011. People who drafted him in keeper leagues (or traded for him) have to be drooling now.

Instant Replay 8/6/2010

Another solid night for my Spot Start predictions. Let's recap how each player did.

Start Daisuke Matsuzaka, Thursday vs Oakland

This was a no brainer, as so-called "Spot Start connoisseur's" pray on weak teams. Daisuke has been anything but the model of consistency this season, however he performed flawlessly in this one. Daisuke went 8 innings, giving up only 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks, good for a sub-1.00 WHIP, and a 1.12 ERA. He managed to get 6 punch-outs, but you never want to expect to many strikeouts from him. This is about as good a start as you could invision him having all season.

Sit Kevin Slowey, Thursday at Tampa Bay

Slowey has been dominant lately, but this just wasn't a great matchup. Boy did he start out strong though, looking like he was going to prove me wrong. He started the game with 7 scoreless innings, recording 8 K's while only allowing 3 hits. Unfortunately for Slowey (and fortunately for me) everything unraveled in the 8th inning, where Slowey gave up 2 hits (one was a solo homerun), hit a batter and walked a batter. All 3 baserunners came around to score on Jason Bartlett's grand slam off of Ron Mahay. Not a bad outing by any means, as his WHIP was a lowely 0.65, and he did record 9 K's (a season high if I'm not mistaken). However, his ERA stood at 4.69 and he helped blow a 6 run lead, and although the Twins won, he didn't get a decision. Not a terrible outing, just not a great one.

So far, I've been spot on my spot starts and hit or miss with my sits. My Start pitchers own the following stats: 3-0, 30 IP, 0.60 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 25 K's. That is rather remarkable if I do say so myself, and if you took my advice in a Head-2-Head league, you likely will win 4 of 5 pitching categories based on those stats alone. My Sit pitchers actually turned out to be not so bad, just not as good as my Starts. The Sit guys posted a 2-1 record, with a 4.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 23 K's in 26.1 IP. Not bad, but it did hurt your ERA, and it's obvious that the Starts are having a better week than the Sits.

J.P. Arencibia to make Major League Debut

Arencibia, called up to take John Bucks spot on the Blue Jays roster, will get regular playing time for the next two weeks until Buck returns from injury. He's got some power potential and if your in need of a quick fix in the HR department, you could do worse. It's likely Arencibia will be Toronto's opening day catcher next season, but for now they are just trying to get him some experience in the big leagues. He's a good add if you just lost Carlos Santana for the season, but it's only a temporary fix.

*Update* The Blue Jays released their lineup today, and for the second straight day Jose Molina will be behind the plate. I don't see this happening much longer, as they didn't call up Arencibia to sit on the bench. Expect him to make his major league debut on Saturday.

Royals designate Jose Guillen for assignment

Basically, the Royals are cutting their losses and seeing what they can get for the journeyman. They have 10 days to either cut him, or trade him. The Royals will look to get some prospects in return, but there is no news yet if any team is seriously interesting.

Youkilis, Santana newest players out for season

Kevin Youkilis will have season ending thumb surgery, while Carlos Santana joins the same club with season ending knee surgery. Both of these injuries ironically occured in the same game. With the loss of Youkilis, it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox pack it in and try to deal some veteran players, or if they truely believe they can catch the Yankees or Rays. Youkilis was arguably the Red Sox most consistent player all season, and his loss will mean big changes in the Red Sox lineup.

Losing Carlos Santana doesn't mean much for the Indians, as they are planning for the future. The Indians are more concerned with Santana's long term health, and if that means season ending surgery, they are more than happy to do it. From a Fantasy perspective, all Santana owners are now scrambling for replacements, and Shin-Soo Choo just took a hit, as he no longer has Austin Kearns or Santana in the lineup to protect him. Choo is far and away the best Indians hitter now, and he likely won't see many good pitchers for the remainder of the season.

Strasburg to return to rotation on Tuesday

Stephen Strasburg made it through his simulated game without any problems, and appears ready to rejoin the rotation. This is good news for Nationals fans, as the injury proved to be fatigue. This is even better news for Strasburg's owners, as they missed his strikeout rate this past week.

Kila Ka'aihue gets playing time in Kansas City

However you pronounce his name, the "Kila-monster" appears to be finally given a chance to perform with the Royals. He's a guy with lots of potential, who has been in the minors too long. He probably won't have a major impact this season, although he will get playing time, but most of his value is in next season. If you can get him as a late round keeper, he might be worth the risk. He projects as an opening day starter next season, as a high risk high reward type guy.

Prospect Spotlight: J.P. Arencibia

With John Buck being placed on the DL, the Toronto Blue Jays called up hot hitting prospect J.P. Arencibia. Here is a little background information on the prospect and advice on how you should handle his call up if you're in need of a catcher.

Arencibia, born on January 5th, 1986 in Miami Florida, was drafted 21st overall in the 2007 Amatuer Draft out of the University of Tennessee. Before becoming a Volunteer, Arencibia attended the same High School that Alex Rodriguez hails from, Westminster Christian High School in Florida. Arencibia is tied for the most career home runs at Westminster Christian, with none other than A-Rod himself.

After four years at Tennessee, Arencibia had performed well enough to earn his high draft pick. He entered the minors with Auburn in Low-A ball. There was some debate as whether to move him to first base, or keep him as a catcher. The Blue Jays decided to leave him at catcher and work on his defense, which more than likely meant a longer road to the major leagues. Through 63 games with Auburn, he batted a mediocre .254, with only 3 home runs. His numbers weren't great, however it was his first exposure to professional baseball, and he was only 21 years old.

Entering 2008, Arencibia was promoted to High-A ball with Dunedin. He played in 59 games, and absolutely raked, smashing 13 homeruns, recording 62 RBI's and posting a .315 average. A call up was in order and Arencibia was shipped to AA New Hampshire. His strong season continued, with another 14 homeruns, 43 RBI's and a .282 average in only 67 games. His combine 2008 stat line was .298/.322/.527 with 27 HR, 105 RBI, 70 R in 126 games.

After the way the 2008 season went, Arencibia seemed a year or less away from a big league call up, and was considered one of the top prospects in baseball (Pre-2009 #43 according to Baseball America). His defense was making strides, and he projected to be an above-average catcher in the bigs. There seemed to be a bright future ahead for Arencibia.

Then 2009 came. Arencibia was promoted yet again to AAA Las Vegas. Arencibia labored through the season, posting marks of .236/.284/.444. He still managed to hit 21 HR's, so the power was still there, but it seemed as though he had taken a step back at the plate. While all this is happening, Arencibia still is making progress with his defense, so the Blue Jays are still commited to him as their catcher of the future, however that future is possibly a few years farther away than originally thought.

Entering 2010 still on the AAA Las Vegas roster, Arencibia had something to prove for the first time in his career. Up until his August 4th call up, Arencibia was torching AAA pitching to the tune of .303/.360/.639 with 31 HR and 79 RBI in 95 games. The prospect is back, and with a little help from John Buck, he's on the Blue Jays roster. With any success, he'll be there to stay.

Even with Arencibia's success in AAA, he's only the 3rd best catching prospect to be called up to the big leagues this year. By many scouts judgment, Carlos Santana and Buster Posey both trump his talent. If you just lost Santana, Arencibia is probably looking pretty good right now.

Below are Arencibia's career minor league stats.

Season	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	Auburn	63	249	58	3	31	25	0	.254	.309	.377
2008	Dunedin/New Hampshire	126	510	152	27	70	105	0	.298	.322	.527
2009	Las Vegas	116	500	110	21	67	75	0	.236	.284	.444
2010	Las Vegas	95	420	115	31	71	79	0	.303	.360	.639

It's hard to say what you can expect from him. Don't pay much attention to his batting average, as Mike Stanton can attest to the adjustment period it takes when playing in the big leagues. You can realistically expect some decent power and an average (at best) batting average. Depending on where he hits in the lineup, don't expect many runs out of him. If your desperate for power, he could be a good pickup, especially the way the Blue Jays are hitting balls out of the park this season.

Instant Replay 8/5/2010

Remember this ad for ESPN Fantasy Baseball? Before the season started, ESPN released this genius add. They could have replaced Vicente Padilla with any number of perpetual bad pitchers, such as Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva or Jamie Moyer. However, in the year of the pitcher, whoever wrote this add might not be feeling so clever today.

I mention this because of my AMAZING prediction of Vicente Padilla's spot start Wednesday agianst the San Diego Padres. I mean, most people could realistically predict a decent start, but who would have thought this? Let's recap my Start and Sit predictions.

Start Vicente Padilla LAD, Wednesday vs San Diego

Padilla threw an absolute gem, a 2 hit complete game shutout. He actually had a no hitter going into the 7th inning, until new Padre Ryan Ludwick finally broke it up with an opposite field single. This kind of outing was fluky and probably wont ever happen again, but if you took my advice, run with it and rub it in whosever face you want! This might be the best Spot Start of the year (unless someone managed to spot start Dallas Braden's no-hitter).

Sit Kyle Kendrick Phi, Wednesday vs Florida

It seems as though any name I mention in my Pitchers to Target as Spot Starts column does well, regardless if they are a "Start" or "Sit." At any rate, I someone predicted this properly. Allow me to refresh your memory.

"I would avoid this one, but if your in desperate need of a Win and can sacrifice ERA and WHIP you might consider this."

This is what I wrote as the closing sentance for my prediction, and it somewhat came true. Kendrick posted a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP, not bad, but not stellar either. Combine that with the fact that he won the game, and you might regret sitting him. Still, I would consider this fluky and not worry about it too much.Now for news from around the league from last night and early this morning.

A-Rod finally hits #600

Does anyone outside of New York even care? I certainly don't. The only way this affects A-Rod's fantasy value is that now that he finally has this out of the way, he won't worry about it and maybe will go back to hitting homeruns at a normal clip.

Aroldis Chapman's debut nears

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Cincinnati Reds are close to calling up Aroldis Chapman, and unleashing his 103 MPH fastball on the league. Chapman is a guy I was very high on at the start of the season, but after reading various scouting reports and looking at his minor league stats, I'll back off a little. The potential is definitely there, he has amazing stuff when he's on. The problem is his inexperience and his lack of control. He'll strike out tons, but walk alot also. He won't get more than 5 starts this season, and probably will start out in the bullpen, so if your considering adding him, be cautious.

Phillies acquire Mike Sweeney from Seattle

After Ryan Howard went on the DL, the Phillies appear to have panicked. It's just that simple. Why else would you sign a washed up guy like Sweeney. It's very concerning that Charlie Manuel already says that Sweeney is his guy at 1B while Howard is out. Sweeney has a history of back problems, and he's 37 years old. I would only consider adding Sweeney in a deep NL-only league, or if you are absolutely desperate.

Braves lose Kris Medlen with UCL injury

The Braves got some bad news last night, when promising young starter Kris Medlen came out of the game with what appeared to be an elbow injury. The Braves later confirmed that Medlen injured his ulnar collateral ligament, and has an MRI scheduled for today. The injury appears to be serious, and it's very possible Medlen has thrown his last pitch of the season.

This is, however, good news for Mike Minor, the pitching prospect called up to replace Medlen on the roster. Minor, drafted 7th overall last season (1 pick ahead of Cincinnati's pitcher Mike Leake, and 3 above National Drew Storen) out of Vanderbilt University, has posted a 144:44 SO:BB ratio in 118.2 IP, good for a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. These aren't amazing numbers, but they are solid. He has good strikeout potential, and is a speculative add in deeper leagues. The Braves will likely limit his innings pitched, however, as he is only 22 years old with less than a full season under his belt.

That does it for todays Instant Replay, stay tuned for another post later today.

How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.

Instant Replay 8/4/2010

Lots of action last night, but before we recap the action, let's see how my Spot Start predictions went.

Start Vin Mazzaro Oak, Tuesday vs Kansas City

Mazzaro had a solid start in this one, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings while striking out 5. He didn't get the win, as the game was tied at the time of his departure, and Craig Breslow eventually blew the game in the 9th. You can't really complain about this start, despite not recording a win, as a 1.5 ERA, 1.16 WHIP is nothing to be upset about.

Sit Scott Olsen Was, Tuesday at Arizona

Hopefully you didn't need my advice on this one to begin with, but in case you did, I hope you took it. Olsen gave up 5 earned runs in 5.2 IP, while posting a WHIP of 1.41 and only punching out 3. An ugly outing for Olsen, who has been a decent pitcher this season. I hate to say it, but I told you so.

So far, I've correctly predicted 3 of 4 Start/Sit decisions this week. Tune in tomorrow to see how Wednesday's games went. Now onto other news from around the league.

Jacoby Ellsbury returns...part 2

According to Terry Francona, Ellsbury will be activated and should play in the Red Sox game against the Indians tonight. It's been a rough season for Ellsbury owners, who never thought in million years that rib problems would only allow him to play in 9 games through July 3rd. Hopefully you hung onto him, as his upside far outweighs any replacement you could have possibly gotten. He should be safe to activate in daily and weekly leagues.

Ryan Howard latest DL victim

Ryan Howard just got shipped off to the DL, becoming the latest superstar to get hit with the injury bug. This season has been called "The Year of the Pitcher" (will post on this later) and most of the time that is attributed to "post-steroid-era baseball" but can you not consider all the injuries in this statement? Nearly every team in the league (and every fantasy team) has been hit at some point or another.

Howard's injury is a sprained ankle, so it doesn't look too serious. He should be out no more than 2-3 weeks. In the meantime, finding a replacement first basemen might be difficult. Look at the potential replacements I named for Kevin Youkilis for advice.

Adam Dunn placed on waivers

This is breaking news, however everyone who knew anything about the situatin knew it was coming. Because of the way waivers work, it is highly unlikely that any American League team will even get a shot at Dunn. National League teams will get first crack, going in order of worst record to best record. There is speculation as to which teams would claim him, but the best and safest bets are San Fransisco and Colorado. If either of these teams claims him (and they likely will), neither team would be able to match the Nationals demands for Dunn, and he will likely be taken back off waivers and remain with the Nationals for the remainder of the season. If your in an NL-only league, don't hit the panic button, and if your in an AL only league, don't hold your breath.

Manny suffers setback, Furcal strains back

Manny has suffered a "setback" in his rehab from a right calf strain, according to Joe Torre, and he likely won't begin a minor league rehab assignment for another week. In shallow, 10 team leagues, I have no problem with you dropping him at this point.

An MRI exam revealed that LA shortstop Rafael Furcal has a low back strain. He's currently listed as day-to-day, and won't play in tonight's game against San Diego. If he can manage to avoid a DL stint, he will likely be out at least a few more games, but that remains to be seen.

Breaking News

Kevin Youkilis has just been put on the DL. I'm not going to speculate on his injury, but it didn't look serious at all, so this news is a bit surprising. This late in the season it hurts fantasy owners to lose their star players. There aren't a ton of options out there as temporary replacements either, but I'll quickly go over a few.

Jose Lopez, 3B Seattle - He's had a terrible year, and is likely sitting in your free agent pool because of it. Let's not forget the potential this guy has, and hope he can turn it around for two months.

Brett Wallace, 3B Houston - He's a bit of a sleeper, but if your in need of a power boost, you could do much worse. He won't steal a single base, he'll have a low average and probably won't score too many runs, but the potential for home runs and RBI's is there.

Chris Johnson, 3B Houston - The other (and possibly better) third basemen of the future in Houston. He's been a Top 10 third basemen in the last month, and is only owned in 24.5% of standard ESPN leagues.

Danny Valencia, 3B Minnesota - His average is way above his head, and is bound to come down, but he has the potential to get a decent amount of runs and RBI's given his playing time with Nick Punto and Orlando Hudson on the DL.

Now I'm just waiting for the inevitible news on Carlos Santana's injury. I assume he will go on the DL, but just hope that he's not out the rest of the season. Manny Acta said that he may have avoided serious ligament damage to knee and also that he "doesn't have any serious damage on his PCL or ACL." Here's hoping for the best for the promising young Cleveland prospect.

*Update* The Cleveland Indians just placed Carlos Santana on the 15-day DL. Further reports have revealed a "high grade strain of his LCL, and a hyperextended knee." There is still no timetable on his rehab, and surgery is still an option. Cleveland will probably do what's best for their star prospect's future, as this season means nothing to them, and he likely played in his last game of 2010 on Monday.

*Update* Kevin Youkilis' injury has been revealed as a "tear in the muscle that helps contract the thumb," and is apparently a rare injury. There is no timetable for his return just yet, but with the Red Sox in the thick of a penant race and Youkilis being their most consistent hitter, I would be shocked to see him out more than 2-3 weeks.

Instant Replay 8/3/10

I intended this post to analyze a few of my suedo-predictions in my last few posts, but I'll expand it to include news from games last night.

My fantasy team took some big blows last night, as I'm sure most of yours did. Carlos Santana suffered a horrific injury that appeared to be season ending. During a collision at home plate with Ryan Kalish, Santana's knee buckled and hyper extended backwards, as well as his ankle twisting sideways before his shoe popped off under the pressure. It was nasty anyway you look at it, and scary for his owners (let alone the Indians). In the same game Kevin Youkilis "jammed" his thumb on a swing and eventually came out of the game. MRI's are scheduled for today, and he likely will be out for a few days. Hopefully he can avoid a DL stint, as thats the last thing the Red Sox need at this point.

Alright, enough depressing injury news. Let's see how I did with the spot start predictions.

Started Travis Wood Cin, Monday at Pittsburgh

This was just about the perfect spot start. 7 scoreless innings, with 4 K's and a 0.43 WHIP, while recording the dominant win. It doesn't get much better than this when plucking pitchers from your free agent pool, and truth be told, Wood might not be a free agent in your league for much longer.

Sat Jeremey Hellickson

I whiffed on this one, as Hellickson also posted a very good spot start. 7 IP, 2 ER and 6 K's, good for a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP while also recording the win (over a very good Minnesota team). This start was arguably more impressive than Wood's, given the level of competition. I may have overlooked one thing when predicting this in the "Sit" column, that being the fact that this was only a one game stint and Hellickson had a chip on his shoulder with something to prove.

Going forward, I'm still holding strong with my Start Vin Mazzaro and Sit Scott Olson. For the rest of the day I'll hold my breath as Santana and Youkilis go in for MRI's on their respective injuries. Here's hoping for the best.

Pitchers to target as Spot Starts

The art of the Spot Start can often be the difference between finishing in the middle of the pack and winning a league. Knowing when to pull the trigger, and when to sit it out is a good skill to have, but even the so-called "experts" can mess up from time to time. The spot start is useful in both Head-2-Head leagues as well as Roto, but the strategy is much different.

In Roto leagues, spot starts make up for the gap between the starting pitchers you drafted and the Games Started limit (often 180 or 200). It's impossible to predict great spot starts every time, so your strategy should be to pick quality matchups, and over the course of the season things will likely even out. If you pick spot starts of above-average pitchers against below-average teams, you might have a few rough outings, but by seasons end you will likely be happy with your results. Take advantage of ballpark factors, and avoid hot teams.

In Head-2-Head leagues, spot starts should only be used in times of need, and rarely before midweek. Let's say your losing every pitching stat by midweek, and you want to make up ground. Streaming pitchers could easily give you the lead back in K's and Wins, and with any luck ERA and WHIP. However, if your winning your matchup after midweek, I would avoid streaming pitchers. It would be unfortunate to pick up a Scott Baker pitching against Baltimore, and have him give up 7 ER and only record 2 K's wouldn't it?

Here are some spot starters to pick up this week, as well as some that on the surface look good, but I suggest you don't bother with them. I'm only considering pitchers owned in less than 50% of standard 10 team ESPN leagues. Ownership is the percentage before each players name.

Start (21.9%) Travis Wood Cin, Monday at Pittsburgh

You really can't go wrong pitching against the Pirates, and any above average pitcher (even one as inexperienced as Wood) should be picked up as soon as possible. He is a speculative add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in deeper leagues.

Sit (3.4%) Jeremey Hellickson TB, Monday vs. Minnesota

Hellickson has great AAA numbers, and will defintely be in the Rays rotation next season. That said, he doesn't draw a great matchup in his Major League debut, getting the Minnesota Twins, currently on an 8 game winning streak and fighting for their American League Central lives. He might do ok, and being a hot prospect he might tempt you, but you should avoid this start. The Rays front office has already came out and stated that his time in the Majors will only be this one start for now, so after the game his value goes back to zero. I would consider starting him against a worse team, but this is just too risky.

Start (2.5%) Vin Mazzaro Oak, Tuesday vs. Kansas City

Tuesday is a rough day for spot starts, and I would avoid all of them if possible. However, if you need one, Mazzaro is a pretty decent bet. Throwing away his last start (at Texas) he is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA. He draws the Royals and Kyle Davies at home, a good pitchers park.

Sit (0.4%) Scott Olsen Was, Tuesday at Arizona

Olsen has had a solid year, with a 3.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. This start should, however, be avoided. While Arizona is one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league, they tend to score a decent amount of runs, and also own a "hitters" park. I'm not a big fan of this matchup.

Start (28.1%) Vicente Padilla LAD, Wednesday vs. San Diego

Padilla has been great of late, posting a 3-1 record, 1.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP with 42 K's in 38.2 IP over his last 6 starts. Even though the Padres have a great team this year, and are in first place, Dodger Stadium is often considered a pitcher park, and I like this matchup. He draws Wade LeBlanc as his opponent, a guy who has been a decent pitcher this season, however, that can mostly be attributed to his pitcher friendly Petco Park.

Sit (0.9%) Kyle Kendrick Phi, Wednesday at Florida

Without any information about the pitchers in this game, one would assume that the Philies have the upper hand over the Marlins. However, Kendrick has had a rough season, and his opponent, Anibal Sanchez, has been great. I would avoid this one, but if your in desperate need of a Win and can sacrifice ERA and WHIP you might consider this.

Start (48.3%) Daisuke Matsuzaka Bos, Thursday vs. Cleveland

While Daisuke has been anything but inconsistent this year, you can't pass up this matchup. This needs little explaination.

Sit (43.7%) Kevin Slowey Min, Thursday at Tampa Bay

This seems like a no brainer, but not so fast. Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in his last two starts, so you might think he's on a hot streak and you should grab him while you can. The thing is, those two starts were against cellar-dwellars Baltimore and Seattle, the two worst teams in the league. Avoid this if at all possible.

Start (41.4%) Rich Harden Tex, Friday at Oakland

Although he's posted a 5.25 ERA this season, I still like this matchup. His ERA and WHIP might not be the best, however he will likely get good run support and has a good shot at the win. Texas is a far superior team than Oakland, who owns the lowest team OPS in the league. Be careful with this start, but it looks like a good option.

Sit (0.4%) Dave Bush Mil, Friday vs. Houston

While on the surface this looks like a good matchup, it's really not. Bush has faced Houston twice in his past 7 starts, and came out the loser in both games. His mos recent start was against the Astros, and he gave up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in only 5 innings of work. Avoid.

That does it for the rest of this week. In the future I might extend this to encompass weekend spot starts, but once again, this post is running a bit long.