Wednesday, August 4, 2010

How to deal with Injuries

I know I've posted on this multiple times, but my fantasy team just can't seem to avoid the injury bug. Today is Day 2 in life without Carlos Santana and Kevin Youkilis, both anchors of my team in the last month or two. I feel that many owners have had trouble with injuries this year, and rather than try to avoid them (next to impossible, by the way) why not learn how to deal with them?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. When you lose a superstar, your going to lose value at that spot in your roster, no matter what. Your mission should be damage control until that player returns. If you lose Albert Pujols tomorrow, Lyle Overbay just isn't going to cut it, capeesh?

The first thing you need to do, is move around your lineup so find positions you can fill. What I mean by that, is if you lose a 1B, but have Adam Dunn in your outfield (he's 1B eligible) you know you don't need specifically a 1B, but rather a 1B or OF. This makes things a lot easier on you, and widens the player pool you have to choose from. If you have multiple players with multiple position eligibilities, you might find you could add just about any position and still be ok. Shuffle things around, and open more options up.

Next, examine the player pool your dealing with. Filter out all available players that don't have the position eligibility that you need. You still have too many names to choose from. There are 3 types of players available to you at this point. Type 1, guys that were drafted (often highly) but due to slow starts or injuries, have been dropped by their original owners (ex. Jose Lopez), Type 2, young guys who haven't gotten their names out there yet (ex. Brett Wallace), and Type 3, your average (most of the time below-average) run-of-the-mill guy, who rarely is owned (ex. Lyle Overbay).

Type 3 guys should be avoided no matter what. I don't care if Casey Kotchman hit 3 HR's this week, he's not going to hit higher than .250 for any length of time, and you want no part of him. What you do want, is to try and catch lightning in a bottle, before it happens. Type 1 guys generally work out better in the long run then Type 2 guys do, but either or could work.

The problem you might run into is few options of Type 1 or Type 2 guys. If this is the case, try to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys, and switch often. When a Type 1 or 2 guy finally comes along, grab him.

Here is a solid, real life example. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with a broken arm, I lost the cornerstone to my team in an instant. How could I possibly make up for this with the players in the free agent pool? I ran into the situation in the paragraph above, lack of Type 1 or Type 2 options, so I tried to find the hot hand of the Type 3 guys. I played Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante, and Ian Desmond for a couple days each, so some success. Then, as if a gift from god was dropped into my free agent pool, owners in my league dropped Alexei Ramirez, Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar. I was giddy with joy and picked up Alexei Ramirez off waiver based purely on his power/speed potential. Ramirez's original owner was fed up with his slow start and bailed. Since I picked him up, here is his stat line: .369, 21 Runs, 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 4 SB's in 30 games. Not too shabby a replacement if I do say so myself.

So let's say you're like me, and just lost Carlos Santana or Kevin Youkilis (or both). Who should you target. I'll give one option for both, and both are Type 1 guys (although debateable Type 1/2 hybrids).

Jose Lopez, 3B (2B eligibility) - Just came off a hamstring injury, so temper your expectations, but lets not forget the potential this guy has. Last season he hit .272 with 25 HR and 96 RBI's. He's been miserable this season so far, but thats not to say it's too late to turn it around.

Matt Wieters, C - The prospect once compared to Joe Mauer has been largely a disappointment this season, and because of it he is likely dropped in your league. Pick him up while you can, as he is a traditional second-half hitter and should post some solid numbers from here on out.