Chris Carter is the power hitting firstbasemen of the future for the Oakland Athletics, this is common knowledge. What can you expect from him, for the rest of this season and for 2011?
According to Baseball America, Chris Carter was the 28th Ranked Prospect for their Pre-2010 rankings. While that might not seem extremely impressive, 28 is only one spot behind Brett Wallace, and ahead of current Major Leaguers Michael Saunders (Mariners), Wade Davis (Rays), Jason Castro (Astros), Redi Brignac (Rays), Ike Davis (Mets), Dan Hudson (Diamondbacks), Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Mike Leake (Reds), Austin Jackson (Tigers), Drew Storen (Nationals), Andrew Cashner (Cubs), Peter Bourjos (Angels) and Jake Arrieta (Orioles). Thats pretty elite company when it comes to prospects.
According to Baseball America, Carter's best tool is his power, graded a 75 out of a possible 80. Thats pretty elite power, and this is shown by his minor league stats over the last few seasons.
| Level | G | 2B | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Rk-A | 82 | 24 | 16 | 64 | 4 | .273 | .373 | .522 |
| A | 126 | 27 | 25 | 93 | 3 | .291 | .383 | .522 |
| A+ | 137 | 32 | 39 | 104 | 4 | .259 | .361 | .569 |
| AA-AAA | 138 | 43 | 28 | 115 | 13 | .329 | .422 | .570 |
| AAA | 113 | 29 | 27 | 89 | 1 | .262 | .368 | .531 |
Even if it is High-A ball, 39 homers is an impressive season. Carters batting average seems to fluctuate each season, and his career mark is only at .285. He strikes out a decent clip, whiffing on 676 of 2471 at bats, good for a 27% whiff-rate. He also has roughly a 2:1 K:BB ratio.
In the future, Carter likely will be eligible at 1B and OF, which increases his value. He will hit for some power in his career, but the average might be lacking. I wouldn't count him out as a slow-poke either, shown by his 13 steals for Oaklands AA affiliate. He never will have elite speed, but I think 10 steals in a season is possible at some point in his career. Remember the guy is only 23 years old.
What can you expect from him in the future? I think his skill set is a lot like that of Marlin Mike Stanton, in that he will hit for power, has the potential to drive in a lot of runs, but his average might turn a lot of people off. Many young players face a harsh adjustment period when they reach the majors, and their batting averages drop. Below are my predictions for 2011 if Carter was to play a full season.
| G | 2B | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 135 | 38 | 21 | 85 | 5 | .260 | .350 | .520 |
I feel this is a realistic expectation, but his upside tells me he could do much better. He is a good keeper candidate if you can get him for extremely cheap, but I would draft him with caution next season.
