Closers being dealt at the trade deadline

Matt Capps is one happy man. Overnight, Capps gained 13 games in the standings, and went from the cellar to the heat of a division race. Ron Gardenhire has already named Matt Capps as the Twins closer over a struggling Jon Rauch. How does this trade effect Capps' (among others) fantasy value?

On one hand, Capps' fantasy value just skyrocketed. He's the closer of a good team, and should get more save chances, easily passing his career high of 27 saves back in 2009 with the Pirates. He's a young guy with a lot to learn, but has the potential to be a solid late inning guy. That said, Capps is arbitration eligible after this season, and assuming he comes back to the Twins bullpen, he will lose his closer role to a then healthy Joe Nathan. For now, Capps fantasy value has increased, and his owners should be happy. Don't plan on drafting him next season.

Rauch is obviously the player that lost the most value in this trade, but the player that gained the most isn't Capps', but rather his former teammate Drew Storen. Storen will likely be thrust into the closer role, although early on he might share the duty with Tyler Clippard. Storen has always been thought of as the Nationals closer of the future, and it's quite possible the future is now.

Octavio Dotel and David Aardsma may not be so lucky. Both are slated to be traded this week, and both will likely take over an 8th inning role on their new team, as they aren't top tier closers. Dotel seems the likelier to be moved, as Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek both appear ready to take over the role for the overpaid Dotel. It's quite obvious both Hanrahan (especially) and Meek are better pitchers and have futures in high pressure late inning roles.

While trading second and third tier closers may kill their value, that value has to be picked up by someone. This week I would target Drew Storen (if you still can), Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Brandon League, Daniel Bard and Clay Hensely. Even if the closer they set up isn't traded, each has value with high K rates and low ERA and WHIP's.

Analyzing my 2010 team

My 2010 12 team mixed league 5x5 roto keeper league draft:

2. Miguel Cabrera (k)
14. Mark Teixeira (k)
26. BJ Upton (k)
38. Felix Hernandez
50. Troy Tulowitzki
62. Kevin Youkilis
83. Adam Jones
86. Torii Hunter
107. Francisco Cordero
110. Jake Peavy
131. Jose Valverde
134. Asdrubal Cabrera
155. Rajai Davis
158. Max Scherzer
179. David Aardsma
182. Bobby Jenks
203. Ryan Dempster
206. Cody Ross
227. Lastings Milledge
230. Ben Sheets
251. Benji Molina
254. Bronson Arroyo
275. Edwin Encarnacion
278. Scott Podsednik
299. Orlando Hudson

My current team (as of 7/2/2010)

C Carlos Santana
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Orlando Hudson*
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alexei Ramirez
2B/SS Aaron Hill
1B/3B Justin Morneau
OF Adam Jones
OF Torii Hunter
OF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Denard Span
OF Carlos Gonzalez
UTIL Mike Stanton
Bench Rajai Davis
DL Troy Tulowitzki
DL Kendry Morales

P Felix Hernandez
P Francisco Cordero
P Jake Peavy
P David Aardsma
P Ryan Dempster
P Frank Francisco
P Billy Wagner
P Mike Adams
P Takashi Saito
Bench Scott Baker
Bench Aaron Heilman

Bold - drafted
Italics - traded for
Normal - FA/Waiver pick up
* - drafted, however dropped and re-added later

Trades completed:

Give Jose Valverde
Receive Shin-Soo Choo

Choo is someone I really liked but didn't get a chance to draft him. So far, he's been a stud, and is on pace for at least a 25-25 season. I gave up arguably the best closer so far this year, but I got a decent amount out of him and I can't see him having a sub-one ERA the entire season so I proposed this trade early in the season, and the owner claimed Choo was worth more than one closer. I knew he desperately needed saves and waited him out, and eventually he caved.

*Update* I might rethink how solid this trade was now that Choo is out with a sprained thumb for 6-8 weeks. No way I could have seen this happening, however, so what can you do?

Give Bobby Jenks
Give BJ Upton
Receive Justin Morneau
Receive Denard Span

Even if I wasn't a huge Twins homer, I would have made this trade. Jenks was an extremely shaky closer at the time (he's settled down lately) and the downgrade of Upton to Span is minimal (at least when you consider all 5 categories). This was a no brainer that was proposed to me.

Give Mark Teixeira
Give Alberto Callaspo
Give Cody Ross
Receive Billy Wagner
Receive Carlos Gonzalez
Add Orlando Hudson

This trade, on the surface, looks terrible for me. Many people in my league thought I was crazy for trading away one of the premier first basemen in the league, and maybe I am. However, at the time of this trade I had Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis and Teixiera. There isn't a possible way I could keep all 4 for next season (Youkilis will lose his 3B eligibility next season) so I had to deal one, and Teixeira was my best bet. He's also been struggling and I was more than a bit fed up. The reason I went throuh with this trade was that I really wanted Wagner and Gonzalez. Adding Hudson back to my roster makes up for the gap that Callaspo leaves, and Gonzalez is a huge upgrade over Cody Ross (although he has been solid this year again). This was a need based trade and I don't regret it, as Teixeira has still largely struggled since this deal.

I can't exactly analyze my add and drops, as I have a daily strategy that involves adding and dropping players. Some of the big adds I've had so far, however, are Aaron Hill, Matt Weiters, Carlos Santana, Mike Stanton, Frank Francisco and Mike Adams. I have an infatuation with high strikeout rate set-up guys, and Santana (I call him "Oye-como-va") and Stanton have both been solid in their short MLB careers.

More anaylsis later in the season but I'll close this post with this. At the time of the draft, I was infatuated with my team. Looking back, I think I had a terrible draft! The only reason I'm succeeding this year is my constant roster changes, good trades and a little bit of luck.