Starting Lineup 7/30/2010

After gaining inspiration from such fantasy sports writers as Matthew Berry and Tristan Cockroft, I've decided to start a column that I'll regularly post at some undetermined interval. The Starting Lineup will run through recent news of one player at each starting position, giving any new insight into fantasy value, trades, injuries, etc etc.

Catcher Carlos Santana (aka "Oye-como-va")

After being called up in early June, Carlos Santana has shown great potential as a major league catcher. His defense has been getting raive reviews, and his bat already appears to be well adjusted to major league pitching. For a position normally not known for it's skill at the plate, Santana is a pleasant surprise.

The reason I'm focusing on Santana today, is because his value just went up. Shin-Soo Choo just came back and his presence in the lineup means good things for Santana's value. Without Choo, Santana was easily Clevelands best hitter, and pitcher keyed in on him and he wasn't getting good pitches to hit. With Choo batting in front of him, he should have a mild protection in the lineup.

1B Joey Votto

Probably the most underrated fantasy first baseman in the game. He's currently second on ESPN's player rater for second basement, only behind the ungodly Miguel Cabrera. Votto has been a dominant force all year, and is a good reason the Reds came out of nowhere to contend with the Cardinals for the NL Central.

The good news is, I only see his value going up. He's a proven performer, and I think he'll perform even better under the pressure of a division race. Next season, he should definitely be considered a top 10 fantasy first baseman, possibly even top 5.

2B Alexi Casilla

The little known second baseman from Minnesota, has shined in his short tenure as the starting 2B for the Twins this season. With both Orlando Hudson and Nick Punto on the DL, he'll be the starter for the forseeable future.

In 2008, Casilla had a breakout year of sorts, hitting .281 with 7 homers, 50 RBI's, 58 runs and 7 SB's in 98 games. Not stellar numbers, but more than solid. He had a rough year in 2009, batting only .202 with no homeruns, but he seems to be back to normal in 2010. I don't consider him a future elite 2B, but he has some nice value here in the short term with the Twins playing some weaker teams.

3B Aramis Ramirez

This is a guy who was left for dead by nearly every fantasy owner that drafted him. You likely dropped him, and it's turned out to be a big mistake. Only a few weeks ago, Ramirez was available in my league, and had passed through waivers. The thought of myself skipping him rather than jumping all over it makes me sick.

In the last 30 days, Ramirez has been the 2nd most valuable third basement (behind only the fluky Jose Bautista) and his value is only going up. It first seemed as though he had taken a giant step backwards this season in his approach at the plate, but it now seems as just plain old bad luck. He is a must get (and potential keeper) in all leagues he is still available in, which at this time shouldn't be many.

SS Alexei Ramirez

Sometimes, an injury can be a blessing. When Troy Tulowitzki went down with an injury (#1 ranked SS at the time) I was devistated. I was extremely lucky to land Alexei Ramirez off waivers, and that choice hasn't disappointed.

In the last 30 days, Alexei, has been the most valuable short stop in baseball, even more so than Hanely Ramirez or Derek Jeter. Unbelievable turnaround this guy has had. After a very slow start, he has steadily raised his batting average, is hitting homeruns at an alarming pace, and even stealing a few bases here and there. Even though I'm a die hard Twins fan, I love you Alexei.

OF Delmon Young, Andres Torres and Coco Crisp

Delmon Young is finally proving to be the player everyone thought he could be, and he's doing it in style. The guy is on a monster tear of late, with no signs of slowing down. If someone would have told me at the beginning of the year that Delmon Young, and not Mauer, Morneau, Kubel or Cuddyer would lead the team in RBI's at this point, I would say they were crazy.

Andres Torres is having a fine fantasy season for himself as well, already with 18 SB's and 10 HR, and a decent average to boot (.283). Completely overlooked but you can't argue with the speed/power combo this guy can give you. Grab him while you can.

Coco Crisp has had a nice few weeks since coming off the DL for most of the season. Sure, it's a small sample size, but he has stolen 8 bases in his last 10 games. A must add in all leagues.

Pitching will have to wait for another day, as this post is getting pretty long. This concludes the first ever "Starting Lineup" post, I hope you enjoyed it.

Closers being dealt at the trade deadline

Matt Capps is one happy man. Overnight, Capps gained 13 games in the standings, and went from the cellar to the heat of a division race. Ron Gardenhire has already named Matt Capps as the Twins closer over a struggling Jon Rauch. How does this trade effect Capps' (among others) fantasy value?

On one hand, Capps' fantasy value just skyrocketed. He's the closer of a good team, and should get more save chances, easily passing his career high of 27 saves back in 2009 with the Pirates. He's a young guy with a lot to learn, but has the potential to be a solid late inning guy. That said, Capps is arbitration eligible after this season, and assuming he comes back to the Twins bullpen, he will lose his closer role to a then healthy Joe Nathan. For now, Capps fantasy value has increased, and his owners should be happy. Don't plan on drafting him next season.

Rauch is obviously the player that lost the most value in this trade, but the player that gained the most isn't Capps', but rather his former teammate Drew Storen. Storen will likely be thrust into the closer role, although early on he might share the duty with Tyler Clippard. Storen has always been thought of as the Nationals closer of the future, and it's quite possible the future is now.

Octavio Dotel and David Aardsma may not be so lucky. Both are slated to be traded this week, and both will likely take over an 8th inning role on their new team, as they aren't top tier closers. Dotel seems the likelier to be moved, as Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek both appear ready to take over the role for the overpaid Dotel. It's quite obvious both Hanrahan (especially) and Meek are better pitchers and have futures in high pressure late inning roles.

While trading second and third tier closers may kill their value, that value has to be picked up by someone. This week I would target Drew Storen (if you still can), Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Brandon League, Daniel Bard and Clay Hensely. Even if the closer they set up isn't traded, each has value with high K rates and low ERA and WHIP's.

Injuries piling up

Every team deals with injuries here and there, it's a fact of fantasy baseball. Just when you think you're safe, that's when the injury bug will bite.

It's bad enough to already have lost Troy Tulowitzki (rated #1 shortstop at the time of the injury), but I got some terrible news this weekend when the Cleveland Indians put Shin-Soo Choo on the DL Saturday (thats right Choo...you keep your head down...me and all your other owners are very disappointed in you...very disappointed). I'm not one to speculate on injuries, or even offer my opinion on them, because I'm not a doctor. However, I saw the play that Choo got injured on, and in no way, shape, or form did this look like a serious injury, or even an injury at all. Choo dove for a ball that was just out of his reach, and without landing on his glove hand funny or anything, quickly got up, grabbed the loose ball and threw it in. Not even a wince of pain on his face, nothing like that. After the game, I figured maybe he bruised it or it was sore, so he got Saturday off but was scheduled for an MRI. This is a precautionary step, and even Manny Acta thought there was no significant injury. Then...WITHOUT WARNING...the Indians threw Choo on the DL with a "sprained right thumb."

Injuries happen to everyone in fantasy baseball, it's a fact of life. You are not judged on how bad your luck is when it comes to injuries, rather you are judged on how you recover from them.

There is no set method to dealing with major injuries. If you were to lose Albert Pujols tomorrow for two months, there is no way you would be able to match his production over that time span, and you would inevitibly be losing value at that roster position. Your goal should be to excercise your skill in "damage control" whenever injuries strike, who knows, sometimes you can even get lucky.

For example, when trying to decide which players to pick up to fill the roster spot (assuming you don't have someone stashed already on the bench), I like to look toward the guys with big upsides, that other owners aren't yet willing to bet on. I also like guys that are having down years, however there is no real explaination as to why it's happening (possibly suggesting it's just bad luck).

I drafted Asdrubal Cabrera as my middle infielder, so when he went down with a broken arm earlier in the year, I wasn't too upset. It was an easy replacement, and I snagged Aaron Hill off the waiver wire. The next two injuries to my team weren't so easy to deal with.

When I lost Tulowizki, I instantly looked at the available free agent shortstops I could pick up to fill in for the next two months ot Tulo-less ball. I was shocked at how few my options were. The best options available at the time were Cliff Pennington, Omar Infante (SS eligibility), and Ian Desmond. While in some deeper leagues all of these players would already be owned, these guys are borderline 12-team players. I ended up switching between the three trying to find the hot hand (with some success) but struck gold when a trio of other owners bailed on their highly drafted shortstops. Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar and Alcides Escobar were all dropped by their fed-up owners, and I grabbed Alexei Ramirez because I felt that he was in the best position to give me value. I'm happy to report that he hit a homerun for me yesterday and another one today.

Shin-Soo Choo, in my opinion, is one of the most overlooked and underrated fantasy (and real life) baseball players you can find. He's a legitimate (when healthy) 25-25 guy, with potential for even more production. If he was healthy, he would have easily been the Indians All-Star, as he is a million times more valuable to any team than Fausto Carmona is. When he went down with his injury a couple days ago, I instantly felt a terrible sickening feeling deep in my stomach. This is going to be harder to rebound from than Tulowizki was. I ended up settling with Jonny Gomes as a replacement (dropped by an impatient owner) and he hit a homerun for me yesterday. However, where I'm really hurting is steals.

Since losing Tulowizki, trading BJ Upton, losing Coo, and combine all that with Rajai Davis's severe drop in playing time, it's safe to say I'm hurting in the SB department. I'm currently second in my league in steals (with 101, a 4 steal lead over 3rd, and a 10 steal deficit from 1st), but can see myself dropping in that category.

I'm just thankful I don't have Chase Utley, or Kendry Morales, or Jason Heyward, or Placido Polanco, or Dustin Pedroia, or Victor Martinez, or Manny Ramirez, or Josh Beckett, or Jacoby Ellsbury, or Grady Sizemore, or Brian Roberts. There has been a crazy amount of injuries this year, so nearly everyone has been effected.

Time to give up on Aaron Hill?

In 2009, Aaron Hill had a season of a lifetime. He batted .286 with 36 homeruns, 103 runs and 108 RBI's. Absolutely rediculous numbers for a second baseman that wasn't highly drafted. Any person with a decent knowlede of baseball would have expected a slight regression...but this?

As of this post, Aaron Hill is hitting .192 through 65 games, falling short of the "Mendoza line" for the first 50+ game stretch in his professional career (at any level). Hill's only saving grace (and the reason he remains owned in nearly 90% of ESPN Standard Leagues) is that his power is still legit. I'm not entirely sure if he is injured and the public just doesn't know about it, or maybe he's got his sights set on swinging for the fences every time he steps up to the plate, whatever it is it has his fantasy owners frustrated.

Being that the season is nearly half over, at what point do you dump Hill? If he bats below .200 all year, even if he hits 15 more homeruns, he's going to get dropped in a lot of leagues (and might already have been in yours). I'll give a couple arguements for both sides and let you decide what to do with him.

"Dump him I say! Another 15 homeruns isn't worth how much he's killing my batting average!" A valid arguement good sir. Here is something to think about: All else equal and constant, if Hill were to bat his career average from here on out the rest of the season (.276), he would still end up batting .239 in 581 at bats. While it's not god-awful, it presents the same problem Carlos Pena owners have all year long. Is the power really worth the batting average? Thats assuming he will improve his batting average, what if he doesnt? If he bats .250 the rest of the way, he'll end the year at .223. Lets not even think about him batting below .200 the rest of the season, because if he does he likely won't make it to 500 at bats, let alone the 15 extra homeruns your expecting from him.

"Whoa, steady now! He's gotten really unlucky so far, he's bound to turn it around." Another good point, and the most commonly used defence against his poor performance thus far. His BABIP is an unworldly .185 compared to his career average of .296. Consider he posted a previous career low BABIP of .288 in 2009 and the picture becomes more clear. This must be bad luck, it's statistically improbable (but not impossible) that his performance should actually be this bad. However, a look at other periferals makes things a little clearer. Hill's LD% (Line-Drive Percent) is nearly half of what it was last year, as well as his career average, sitting at 8.3%. It's possible he's just not seeing the ball well this year, or pitchers have found a glaring hole in his swing. At any rate, I would expect both of those numbers to increase, which will cause his batting average to go up as well. He might even get more runs and RBI's out of this as well.

So really, it depends on how optimistic you are. Do you wait it out or bail now? My advice would be that if you've ridden this ride this long, you better be in it for the long haul. I would also consider him a strong buy low candidate, and if he's on the waiver wire in your league, grab him and stash him on the bench.