Friday, July 30, 2010

Closers being dealt at the trade deadline

Matt Capps is one happy man. Overnight, Capps gained 13 games in the standings, and went from the cellar to the heat of a division race. Ron Gardenhire has already named Matt Capps as the Twins closer over a struggling Jon Rauch. How does this trade effect Capps' (among others) fantasy value?

On one hand, Capps' fantasy value just skyrocketed. He's the closer of a good team, and should get more save chances, easily passing his career high of 27 saves back in 2009 with the Pirates. He's a young guy with a lot to learn, but has the potential to be a solid late inning guy. That said, Capps is arbitration eligible after this season, and assuming he comes back to the Twins bullpen, he will lose his closer role to a then healthy Joe Nathan. For now, Capps fantasy value has increased, and his owners should be happy. Don't plan on drafting him next season.

Rauch is obviously the player that lost the most value in this trade, but the player that gained the most isn't Capps', but rather his former teammate Drew Storen. Storen will likely be thrust into the closer role, although early on he might share the duty with Tyler Clippard. Storen has always been thought of as the Nationals closer of the future, and it's quite possible the future is now.

Octavio Dotel and David Aardsma may not be so lucky. Both are slated to be traded this week, and both will likely take over an 8th inning role on their new team, as they aren't top tier closers. Dotel seems the likelier to be moved, as Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek both appear ready to take over the role for the overpaid Dotel. It's quite obvious both Hanrahan (especially) and Meek are better pitchers and have futures in high pressure late inning roles.

While trading second and third tier closers may kill their value, that value has to be picked up by someone. This week I would target Drew Storen (if you still can), Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Brandon League, Daniel Bard and Clay Hensely. Even if the closer they set up isn't traded, each has value with high K rates and low ERA and WHIP's.