Instant Replay 8/5/2010

Remember this ad for ESPN Fantasy Baseball? Before the season started, ESPN released this genius add. They could have replaced Vicente Padilla with any number of perpetual bad pitchers, such as Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva or Jamie Moyer. However, in the year of the pitcher, whoever wrote this add might not be feeling so clever today.

I mention this because of my AMAZING prediction of Vicente Padilla's spot start Wednesday agianst the San Diego Padres. I mean, most people could realistically predict a decent start, but who would have thought this? Let's recap my Start and Sit predictions.

Start Vicente Padilla LAD, Wednesday vs San Diego

Padilla threw an absolute gem, a 2 hit complete game shutout. He actually had a no hitter going into the 7th inning, until new Padre Ryan Ludwick finally broke it up with an opposite field single. This kind of outing was fluky and probably wont ever happen again, but if you took my advice, run with it and rub it in whosever face you want! This might be the best Spot Start of the year (unless someone managed to spot start Dallas Braden's no-hitter).

Sit Kyle Kendrick Phi, Wednesday vs Florida

It seems as though any name I mention in my Pitchers to Target as Spot Starts column does well, regardless if they are a "Start" or "Sit." At any rate, I someone predicted this properly. Allow me to refresh your memory.

"I would avoid this one, but if your in desperate need of a Win and can sacrifice ERA and WHIP you might consider this."

This is what I wrote as the closing sentance for my prediction, and it somewhat came true. Kendrick posted a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP, not bad, but not stellar either. Combine that with the fact that he won the game, and you might regret sitting him. Still, I would consider this fluky and not worry about it too much.Now for news from around the league from last night and early this morning.

A-Rod finally hits #600

Does anyone outside of New York even care? I certainly don't. The only way this affects A-Rod's fantasy value is that now that he finally has this out of the way, he won't worry about it and maybe will go back to hitting homeruns at a normal clip.

Aroldis Chapman's debut nears

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Cincinnati Reds are close to calling up Aroldis Chapman, and unleashing his 103 MPH fastball on the league. Chapman is a guy I was very high on at the start of the season, but after reading various scouting reports and looking at his minor league stats, I'll back off a little. The potential is definitely there, he has amazing stuff when he's on. The problem is his inexperience and his lack of control. He'll strike out tons, but walk alot also. He won't get more than 5 starts this season, and probably will start out in the bullpen, so if your considering adding him, be cautious.

Phillies acquire Mike Sweeney from Seattle

After Ryan Howard went on the DL, the Phillies appear to have panicked. It's just that simple. Why else would you sign a washed up guy like Sweeney. It's very concerning that Charlie Manuel already says that Sweeney is his guy at 1B while Howard is out. Sweeney has a history of back problems, and he's 37 years old. I would only consider adding Sweeney in a deep NL-only league, or if you are absolutely desperate.

Braves lose Kris Medlen with UCL injury

The Braves got some bad news last night, when promising young starter Kris Medlen came out of the game with what appeared to be an elbow injury. The Braves later confirmed that Medlen injured his ulnar collateral ligament, and has an MRI scheduled for today. The injury appears to be serious, and it's very possible Medlen has thrown his last pitch of the season.

This is, however, good news for Mike Minor, the pitching prospect called up to replace Medlen on the roster. Minor, drafted 7th overall last season (1 pick ahead of Cincinnati's pitcher Mike Leake, and 3 above National Drew Storen) out of Vanderbilt University, has posted a 144:44 SO:BB ratio in 118.2 IP, good for a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. These aren't amazing numbers, but they are solid. He has good strikeout potential, and is a speculative add in deeper leagues. The Braves will likely limit his innings pitched, however, as he is only 22 years old with less than a full season under his belt.

That does it for todays Instant Replay, stay tuned for another post later today.

Pitchers to target as Spot Starts

The art of the Spot Start can often be the difference between finishing in the middle of the pack and winning a league. Knowing when to pull the trigger, and when to sit it out is a good skill to have, but even the so-called "experts" can mess up from time to time. The spot start is useful in both Head-2-Head leagues as well as Roto, but the strategy is much different.

In Roto leagues, spot starts make up for the gap between the starting pitchers you drafted and the Games Started limit (often 180 or 200). It's impossible to predict great spot starts every time, so your strategy should be to pick quality matchups, and over the course of the season things will likely even out. If you pick spot starts of above-average pitchers against below-average teams, you might have a few rough outings, but by seasons end you will likely be happy with your results. Take advantage of ballpark factors, and avoid hot teams.

In Head-2-Head leagues, spot starts should only be used in times of need, and rarely before midweek. Let's say your losing every pitching stat by midweek, and you want to make up ground. Streaming pitchers could easily give you the lead back in K's and Wins, and with any luck ERA and WHIP. However, if your winning your matchup after midweek, I would avoid streaming pitchers. It would be unfortunate to pick up a Scott Baker pitching against Baltimore, and have him give up 7 ER and only record 2 K's wouldn't it?

Here are some spot starters to pick up this week, as well as some that on the surface look good, but I suggest you don't bother with them. I'm only considering pitchers owned in less than 50% of standard 10 team ESPN leagues. Ownership is the percentage before each players name.

Start (21.9%) Travis Wood Cin, Monday at Pittsburgh

You really can't go wrong pitching against the Pirates, and any above average pitcher (even one as inexperienced as Wood) should be picked up as soon as possible. He is a speculative add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in deeper leagues.

Sit (3.4%) Jeremey Hellickson TB, Monday vs. Minnesota

Hellickson has great AAA numbers, and will defintely be in the Rays rotation next season. That said, he doesn't draw a great matchup in his Major League debut, getting the Minnesota Twins, currently on an 8 game winning streak and fighting for their American League Central lives. He might do ok, and being a hot prospect he might tempt you, but you should avoid this start. The Rays front office has already came out and stated that his time in the Majors will only be this one start for now, so after the game his value goes back to zero. I would consider starting him against a worse team, but this is just too risky.

Start (2.5%) Vin Mazzaro Oak, Tuesday vs. Kansas City

Tuesday is a rough day for spot starts, and I would avoid all of them if possible. However, if you need one, Mazzaro is a pretty decent bet. Throwing away his last start (at Texas) he is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA. He draws the Royals and Kyle Davies at home, a good pitchers park.

Sit (0.4%) Scott Olsen Was, Tuesday at Arizona

Olsen has had a solid year, with a 3.67 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. This start should, however, be avoided. While Arizona is one of the most strikeout prone teams in the league, they tend to score a decent amount of runs, and also own a "hitters" park. I'm not a big fan of this matchup.

Start (28.1%) Vicente Padilla LAD, Wednesday vs. San Diego

Padilla has been great of late, posting a 3-1 record, 1.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP with 42 K's in 38.2 IP over his last 6 starts. Even though the Padres have a great team this year, and are in first place, Dodger Stadium is often considered a pitcher park, and I like this matchup. He draws Wade LeBlanc as his opponent, a guy who has been a decent pitcher this season, however, that can mostly be attributed to his pitcher friendly Petco Park.

Sit (0.9%) Kyle Kendrick Phi, Wednesday at Florida

Without any information about the pitchers in this game, one would assume that the Philies have the upper hand over the Marlins. However, Kendrick has had a rough season, and his opponent, Anibal Sanchez, has been great. I would avoid this one, but if your in desperate need of a Win and can sacrifice ERA and WHIP you might consider this.

Start (48.3%) Daisuke Matsuzaka Bos, Thursday vs. Cleveland

While Daisuke has been anything but inconsistent this year, you can't pass up this matchup. This needs little explaination.

Sit (43.7%) Kevin Slowey Min, Thursday at Tampa Bay

This seems like a no brainer, but not so fast. Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in his last two starts, so you might think he's on a hot streak and you should grab him while you can. The thing is, those two starts were against cellar-dwellars Baltimore and Seattle, the two worst teams in the league. Avoid this if at all possible.

Start (41.4%) Rich Harden Tex, Friday at Oakland

Although he's posted a 5.25 ERA this season, I still like this matchup. His ERA and WHIP might not be the best, however he will likely get good run support and has a good shot at the win. Texas is a far superior team than Oakland, who owns the lowest team OPS in the league. Be careful with this start, but it looks like a good option.

Sit (0.4%) Dave Bush Mil, Friday vs. Houston

While on the surface this looks like a good matchup, it's really not. Bush has faced Houston twice in his past 7 starts, and came out the loser in both games. His mos recent start was against the Astros, and he gave up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in only 5 innings of work. Avoid.

That does it for the rest of this week. In the future I might extend this to encompass weekend spot starts, but once again, this post is running a bit long.